Dec 6 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
India's central bank interest rate decision grabs the
spotlight in Asia on Friday, as investors digest yet another
record high for the Nasdaq and adjust positions ahead of the
weekend.
The U.S. employment report for November later in the day is
released after Asia closes, so investors across the continent
may be inclined to square positions as best they can in
preparation for Monday.
The main event in Asia on Friday is in India. The Reserve
Bank of India is overwhelmingly expected to hold its key repo
rate at 6.50%, after a sharp rise in inflation past the RBI's 6%
tolerance ceiling in October prompted many economists to push
back their forecasts for the first cut to early next year.
With the rupee at record lows against the dollar, standing
pat makes sense. But economists at Nomura, one of the five out
of 67 houses in the Reuters poll predicting a rate cut, argue
that weakening growth dynamics must be taken into account now.
Although the rupee has never been weaker, benchmark bond
yields are at their lowest in almost four years, Indian stocks
are lagging many of their regional peers, and the economy is
growing at its slowest pace in nearly two years. Maybe the RBI
should start the easing cycle sooner rather than later?
Investors go into the final trading session of the week
against a relatively calm global backdrop, all things
considered. Any market impact from the political ructions in
South Korea and France appears to be fading and contained, and
the dollar's dip on Thursday will be welcomed too.
The dollar fell 0.5% on Thursday. It's probably too early to
read anything too deeply into it, but that was its third down
day in a row, a losing streak not seen since September. It will
take more than that - perhaps a return to the September lows,
around 5% below current levels - to really call into question
the dollar's resilience, but could fatigue be setting in?
Fatigue is something the U.S. economy doesn't seem to be
showing any signs of yet. The Atlanta Fed on Thursday raised its
GDPNow model estimate for Q4 growth to a remarkable 3.3%. As
investors fret about growth in Europe, China and many other key
economies around the world, America appears to be the exception
that continues to prove the rule.
This is a double-edged sword for Asia. On the one hand it's
clearly good news as booming U.S. markets should lift all
others. But if it lifts the dollar and Treasury yields, then
global financial conditions tighten and capital is sucked
towards the US.
Indeed, net selling of Asian equities by foreigners in
November was the highest since June 2022.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- India rate decision
- Japan household spending (October)
- South Korea current account (October)