Jan 15 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
A pause in the global bond selloff took some wind out of the
dollar's sails and allowed equities to regain their footing
early on Tuesday but Wall Street's wobble ahead of U.S.
inflation data could put Asian markets back on the defensive on
Wednesday.
The dollar and Treasury yields losing steam should offer
emerging and Asian markets some welcome respite. But the
reversal in U.S. stocks could ensure it is short-lived,
especially with U.S. CPI inflation numbers landing after Asia
has closed.
Asian markets were buoyant on Tuesday. The MSCI Asia
ex-Japan index rebounded from a five-month low and blue chip
Chinese stocks leaped more than 2.5%, as regulators pledged more
support for markets and local chip firms rallied after the U.S.
stepped up its tech curbs.
Japanese stocks went the other way, however, after Bank of
Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino flagged the chance of a rate
hike next week. The Nikkei 225 index chalked up its biggest fall
in two and a half months, slumping 1.8%.
That's the regional local backdrop to the open on Wednesday,
where the main local event will be Bank Indonesia's policy
decision. Spooked by recent currency volatility, BI is widely
expected to keep its main interest rate on hold at 6.00%.
With inflation at the lower end of the central bank's target
range of 1.5%-3.5%, monetary policy is being directed towards
stabilizing the rupiah, which is down around 7% against the
dollar from its September peak.
Like most emerging countries, Indonesia has been hit hard by
spiking U.S. bond yields and the dollar "wrecking ball", a
tightening of financial conditions that is restricting BI's
ability to ease policy.
According to Goldman Sachs ( GS ), Indonesia's financial conditions
have deteriorated sharply since late September, mainly due to
the rise in long rates and decline in equities. They are now the
tightest since October 2023, and close to the tightest since
October 2022.
The threat of a global trade war and punitive U.S. tariffs
on many countries - especially China - continues to weigh on
market sentiment as U.S. president-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20
inauguration draws closer.
Meeting with European Council President Antonio Costa on
Tuesday, Chinese President Xi Jinping said China and the
European Union have a robust "symbiotic" economic relationship
and Beijing hopes the bloc can become "a trustworthy partner for
cooperation".
Meanwhile, Trump said on Tuesday he will create a new
department called the External Revenue Service "to collect
tariffs, duties, and all revenue" from foreign sources.
South Korea's won is one of the best-performing Asian
currencies this year, but could fall on Wednesday after Yonhap
reported that authorities investigating impeached President Yoon
Suk Yeol were at his official residence to execute an arrest
warrant.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Indonesia interest rate decision
- South Korea unemployment (December)
- Japan services tankan survey (January)