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MORNING BID ASIA-China's positive PMIs set bullish tone
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MORNING BID ASIA-China's positive PMIs set bullish tone
Mar 31, 2024 3:17 PM

April 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asian markets are primed for a positive start to the new quarter

following more evidence of the U.S. "soft landing" on Friday and

figures on Sunday that showed manufacturing and service sector

activity in China last month accelerated in tandem.

Trading volume on Monday will be lighter than usual with

much of Europe still closed for the Easter holiday, but U.S.

stock and bond markets are open again.

Asia's economic calendar is packed with key indicators -

manufacturing purchasing managers index reports from several

countries including Japan; South Korean trade; Indonesian

inflation; and Japan's quarterly tankan business conditions

surveys.

The exchange rates of Asia's two largest economies will once

again be under the spotlight - Japan's yen remains in

"intervention" territory, and while China's yuan is also under

pressure against the dollar but is at a 30-year high against the

yen.

The yuan last week slipped in spot trading to its weakest

level this year around 7.22 per dollar but the People's Bank of

China has kept the daily fixing rate virtually unchanged around

7.0950 for the past four days.

This suggests the PBOC doesn't want any volatility or abrupt

weakness. But Beijing's predicament is exacerbated by the yuan's

exchange rate with the yen - it is at 30-year high against the

Japanese currency, giving Tokyo a competitive advantage on the

world trade stage.

But Beijing will have welcomed the latest earnings from tech

giant Huawei, and official PMI figures that showed manufacturing

activity expanding for the first time in six months.

The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier

and export orders also picked up. The official services PMI rose

to its highest since June and the composite PMI its highest

since April - numbers that could give Chinese and global markets

a lift on Monday.

China's unofficial Caixin manufacturing PMI figures will be

released on Monday.

Investors will also be looking to see whether Japan's first

quarter tankan business conditions surveys shows evidence of

economic momentum and recovery in domestic demand. Capex plans

of large firms could also signal whether Japan's stock market

boom has more upside.

Another market-mover on Monday could be Indonesian consumer

inflation. Rising meat and food prices are expected to lift the

annual rate to 2.91% in March from 2.75%, which would be the

highest since August although still within Bank Indonesia's

1.5%-3.5% target.

The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 6% for

the fourth consecutive meeting in February and is likely to wait

for the Fed to cut rates before easing.

Regional highlights later include more PMIs, inflation from

South Korea and the Philippines, and the latest monetary policy

decision and guidance from the Reserve Bank of India.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)

- Japan tankan survey (Q1)

- Indonesia inflation (March)

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