April 1 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asian markets are primed for a positive start to the new quarter
following more evidence of the U.S. "soft landing" on Friday and
figures on Sunday that showed manufacturing and service sector
activity in China last month accelerated in tandem.
Trading volume on Monday will be lighter than usual with
much of Europe still closed for the Easter holiday, but U.S.
stock and bond markets are open again.
Asia's economic calendar is packed with key indicators -
manufacturing purchasing managers index reports from several
countries including Japan; South Korean trade; Indonesian
inflation; and Japan's quarterly tankan business conditions
surveys.
The exchange rates of Asia's two largest economies will once
again be under the spotlight - Japan's yen remains in
"intervention" territory, and while China's yuan is also under
pressure against the dollar but is at a 30-year high against the
yen.
The yuan last week slipped in spot trading to its weakest
level this year around 7.22 per dollar but the People's Bank of
China has kept the daily fixing rate virtually unchanged around
7.0950 for the past four days.
This suggests the PBOC doesn't want any volatility or abrupt
weakness. But Beijing's predicament is exacerbated by the yuan's
exchange rate with the yen - it is at 30-year high against the
Japanese currency, giving Tokyo a competitive advantage on the
world trade stage.
But Beijing will have welcomed the latest earnings from tech
giant Huawei, and official PMI figures that showed manufacturing
activity expanding for the first time in six months.
The manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 from 49.1 a month earlier
and export orders also picked up. The official services PMI rose
to its highest since June and the composite PMI its highest
since April - numbers that could give Chinese and global markets
a lift on Monday.
China's unofficial Caixin manufacturing PMI figures will be
released on Monday.
Investors will also be looking to see whether Japan's first
quarter tankan business conditions surveys shows evidence of
economic momentum and recovery in domestic demand. Capex plans
of large firms could also signal whether Japan's stock market
boom has more upside.
Another market-mover on Monday could be Indonesian consumer
inflation. Rising meat and food prices are expected to lift the
annual rate to 2.91% in March from 2.75%, which would be the
highest since August although still within Bank Indonesia's
1.5%-3.5% target.
The central bank left its policy rate unchanged at 6% for
the fourth consecutive meeting in February and is likely to wait
for the Fed to cut rates before easing.
Regional highlights later include more PMIs, inflation from
South Korea and the Philippines, and the latest monetary policy
decision and guidance from the Reserve Bank of India.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China Caixin manufacturing PMI (March)
- Japan tankan survey (Q1)
- Indonesia inflation (March)