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MORNING BID ASIA-China inflation eyed, global political uncertainty bubbling up
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MORNING BID ASIA-China inflation eyed, global political uncertainty bubbling up
Dec 8, 2024 2:05 PM

Dec 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Attention turns to China on Monday and the release of November

inflation data, with global investor sentiment broadly upbeat as

the relentless rally on Wall Street continues but tempered by an

increasingly volatile geopolitical backdrop.

The toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the

uncertainty that unleashes on an already volatile Middle East,

criminal charges against South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol,

and France's political chaos are all potential reasons for

investors to play it safe.

If so, U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds, gold and

the dollar may all see increased interest in early trading on

Monday. The fast-moving events in South Korea could ripple

across Asia, and the country's finance ministry and central bank

are expected to do all they can to ensure financial stability

and protect the won.

The currency has weakened around 10% since the end of

September, hitting a two-year low last week. A move through

1,445 won per dollar, which is eminently possible, will mark its

weakest level since the global financial crisis in early 2009.

On the other hand, the prospect of further interest rate

cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and falling Treasury bond

yields, combined with solid U.S. employment figures on Friday,

delivered yet another record high on Wall Street.

Global FX volatility may be on the rise, but measures of

U.S. equity and bond market volatility are the lowest in months.

As long as that remains the case, Wall Street seems set to end a

remarkable year on a firm footing.

Investors in Asia on Monday have their first opportunity to

react to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report which showed

solid job growth but an uptick in the unemployment rate last

month.

Rates traders appeared to have put more weight on the

unemployment rate - they now fully expect a quarter point rate

cut from the Fed on Dec. 18, and priced in an extra 10 bps of

easing over the course of next year.

The main data focus on Monday in Asia will be consumer and

producer price inflation from China. The pace of monthly

consumer deflation is expected to have accelerated to -0.4% from

-0.3%, and this would be the deepest rate of month-on-month

price declines since March. Annual inflation is seen rising to

0.5% from 0.3%.

Producer prices, however, are expected to remain deep in

deflationary territory with factory gate prices falling at an

annual rate of 2.8% in November, little changed from October's

2.9% fall.

Investors will also now be looking ahead to China's upcoming

Politburo meeting, where Beijing's top policymakers will set out

their priorities for the coming year. For investors, the

government's 2025 growth target and budget will be two of the

most important.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Monday:

- China producer, consumer inflation (November)

- Japan GDP (Q3, revised)

- Taiwan trade (November)

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