Dec 9 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Attention turns to China on Monday and the release of November
inflation data, with global investor sentiment broadly upbeat as
the relentless rally on Wall Street continues but tempered by an
increasingly volatile geopolitical backdrop.
The toppling of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the
uncertainty that unleashes on an already volatile Middle East,
criminal charges against South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol,
and France's political chaos are all potential reasons for
investors to play it safe.
If so, U.S. Treasuries and other government bonds, gold and
the dollar may all see increased interest in early trading on
Monday. The fast-moving events in South Korea could ripple
across Asia, and the country's finance ministry and central bank
are expected to do all they can to ensure financial stability
and protect the won.
The currency has weakened around 10% since the end of
September, hitting a two-year low last week. A move through
1,445 won per dollar, which is eminently possible, will mark its
weakest level since the global financial crisis in early 2009.
On the other hand, the prospect of further interest rate
cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve and falling Treasury bond
yields, combined with solid U.S. employment figures on Friday,
delivered yet another record high on Wall Street.
Global FX volatility may be on the rise, but measures of
U.S. equity and bond market volatility are the lowest in months.
As long as that remains the case, Wall Street seems set to end a
remarkable year on a firm footing.
Investors in Asia on Monday have their first opportunity to
react to Friday's U.S. non-farm payrolls report which showed
solid job growth but an uptick in the unemployment rate last
month.
Rates traders appeared to have put more weight on the
unemployment rate - they now fully expect a quarter point rate
cut from the Fed on Dec. 18, and priced in an extra 10 bps of
easing over the course of next year.
The main data focus on Monday in Asia will be consumer and
producer price inflation from China. The pace of monthly
consumer deflation is expected to have accelerated to -0.4% from
-0.3%, and this would be the deepest rate of month-on-month
price declines since March. Annual inflation is seen rising to
0.5% from 0.3%.
Producer prices, however, are expected to remain deep in
deflationary territory with factory gate prices falling at an
annual rate of 2.8% in November, little changed from October's
2.9% fall.
Investors will also now be looking ahead to China's upcoming
Politburo meeting, where Beijing's top policymakers will set out
their priorities for the coming year. For investors, the
government's 2025 growth target and budget will be two of the
most important.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Monday:
- China producer, consumer inflation (November)
- Japan GDP (Q3, revised)
- Taiwan trade (November)