June 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian
markets.
Asia's market spotlight on Friday shines brightly and almost
exclusively on the Bank of Japan, notably the degree and pace at
which it intends to continue normalizing monetary policy in the
world's third largest economy.
The BOJ follows the European Central Bank last week and the
U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday to complete the G3 central
bank set, with investors keen to gauge policymakers' appetite
for accelerating the exit from decades of ultra-easy policy.
All Japanese assets will be sensitive to the decision and
guidance, but the broader ripple effects could be felt most in
global currency markets if the yen moves significantly.
Wholesale price inflation from India and New Zealand's
latest manufacturing purchasing managers index are released on
Friday. Investors across the region are mostly in buoyant
spirits following the surge in risk appetite after the Fed and
perhaps more significantly, the latest U.S. inflation figures.
But all eyes are on the BOJ. Sources have told Reuters the
BOJ will discuss whether to taper its bond purchases, but that
the decision would depend on market developments leading up to
the meeting.
There was a slight 'risk off' response to the Fed's revised
economic projections and Chair Powell's press conference. But
any caution was washed away by a huge wave of 'risk on' activity
following the soft producer and consumer inflation data.
Emerging market and Asia-ex Japan stock indexes are up,
world stocks hit a new high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq
on Thursday posted their fourth consecutive daily closing highs,
cross-asset volatility is lower and credit spreads are tighter.
If BOJ policymakers are looking for a benign set of global
conditions in which to begin tapering their bond purchases, this
could be it.
The domestic scenario may be a little murkier with bond
yields elevated and the yen still anchored at historically weak
levels. But yields are off their highs and stocks have
flat-lined for two months, so why not start the taper now?
Investors in China, meanwhile, will be looking forward to
closing out a bruising week. Stocks are on for a fourth straight
weekly loss, their worst run this year, while the yuan is
anchored near its lows for the year and on Thursday registered
its biggest fall on the spot market in three months.
Trade war fears are growing, and this week it was
Europe-China tariffs that grabbed the headlines after the
European Union slapped new tariffs on electric vehicles imported
from China.
Auto stocks dragged European shares lower on Thursday, the
pan-European STOXX 600 index sliding 1.3% for its biggest fall
in two months. Beijing's response, whenever it comes, could send
negative shocks through Chinese stocks.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Friday:
- Japan interest rate decision
- India wholesale inflation (May)
- New Zealand manufacturing PMI (May)