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MORNING BID ASIA-Caution at Fed, but what about the Bank of Japan?
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MORNING BID ASIA-Caution at Fed, but what about the Bank of Japan?
Jun 13, 2024 3:13 PM

June 14 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian

markets.

Asia's market spotlight on Friday shines brightly and almost

exclusively on the Bank of Japan, notably the degree and pace at

which it intends to continue normalizing monetary policy in the

world's third largest economy.

The BOJ follows the European Central Bank last week and the

U.S. Federal Reserve on Wednesday to complete the G3 central

bank set, with investors keen to gauge policymakers' appetite

for accelerating the exit from decades of ultra-easy policy.

All Japanese assets will be sensitive to the decision and

guidance, but the broader ripple effects could be felt most in

global currency markets if the yen moves significantly.

Wholesale price inflation from India and New Zealand's

latest manufacturing purchasing managers index are released on

Friday. Investors across the region are mostly in buoyant

spirits following the surge in risk appetite after the Fed and

perhaps more significantly, the latest U.S. inflation figures.

But all eyes are on the BOJ. Sources have told Reuters the

BOJ will discuss whether to taper its bond purchases, but that

the decision would depend on market developments leading up to

the meeting.

There was a slight 'risk off' response to the Fed's revised

economic projections and Chair Powell's press conference. But

any caution was washed away by a huge wave of 'risk on' activity

following the soft producer and consumer inflation data.

Emerging market and Asia-ex Japan stock indexes are up,

world stocks hit a new high on Wednesday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq

on Thursday posted their fourth consecutive daily closing highs,

cross-asset volatility is lower and credit spreads are tighter.

If BOJ policymakers are looking for a benign set of global

conditions in which to begin tapering their bond purchases, this

could be it.

The domestic scenario may be a little murkier with bond

yields elevated and the yen still anchored at historically weak

levels. But yields are off their highs and stocks have

flat-lined for two months, so why not start the taper now?

Investors in China, meanwhile, will be looking forward to

closing out a bruising week. Stocks are on for a fourth straight

weekly loss, their worst run this year, while the yuan is

anchored near its lows for the year and on Thursday registered

its biggest fall on the spot market in three months.

Trade war fears are growing, and this week it was

Europe-China tariffs that grabbed the headlines after the

European Union slapped new tariffs on electric vehicles imported

from China.

Auto stocks dragged European shares lower on Thursday, the

pan-European STOXX 600 index sliding 1.3% for its biggest fall

in two months. Beijing's response, whenever it comes, could send

negative shocks through Chinese stocks.

Here are key developments that could provide more direction

to markets on Friday:

- Japan interest rate decision

- India wholesale inflation (May)

- New Zealand manufacturing PMI (May)

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