A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Wall Street steadied after Monday's freak out over AI-linked
mega cap valuations, with Nvidia recouping some of its
historic market cap loss while, upon a day's reflection, China's
budget startup DeepSeek looked less threatening to U.S. tech
leadership.
Nvidia gained almost 8% after a 17% slump wiped almost $600
billion off its value on Monday, a record for any company. The
tech-centric Nasdaq was up 2% and the S&P 500 about one percent.
Monday's slide in companies exposed to artificial intelligence
collectively reduced the size of the market by more than $1
trillion.
Twenty-four hours later, it looks more like an overdue reset
from a record run dominated by the largest companies. The S&P
500 equal weight index fell slightly on Tuesday after
actually closing up a smidge during the tech-led meltdown on
Monday.
Nvidia short sellers raked in over $6 billion in profits on
Monday, data analytics firm Ortex said. Short bets also paid off
big time on chip-maker Broadcom ( AVGO ), and other AI-linked
stocks.
Options traders were quick to pile back into Nvidia
contracts after Monday's slide. Call options, typically bought
to express a bullish view on a stock, outnumbered put options
1.6-to-1, nearly in line with the 1-year average, after dipping
to a more than two-month low of 1.36-to-1 on Monday.
More than half of the Magnificent 7 companies are reporting
earnings this week, with Meta, Tesla and
Microsoft ( MSFT ) releasing Wednesday after the bell and Apple ( AAPL )
post-close on Thursday. This will provide a glimpse of
how their AI investments are faring so far and a chance for
executives to comment on how much DeepSeek has changed the
competitive landscape.
While there is scepticism over DeepSeek's cost claims, it
clearly introduces competition to the AI game from China.
Hedge fund manager Bridgewater Associates said Tuesday
DeepSeek's launch of its latest artificial intelligence (AI)
models could lead to a short-term correction in many tech
companies' share prices but is positive for the industry as an
incentive to invest more in efficiency gains.
Japan's Nikkei 225 share average could take its cue
from the U.S. bounce, as it did with a 1.4% slide overnight.
Otherwise many Asian centers are closed on Wednesday for the
Chinese New Year.
The Federal Reserve opened its two-day meeting on Tuesday
and is expected to keep rates steady after 100 basis points of
easing from September to December.
U.S. rate futures are pricing in almost 50 basis points of
cuts this year, or two 25 bp reductions starting in June. Until
this week, it had factored in just one cut.
The European Central Bank meets on Thursday and is expected
to lower rates, which would widen the dollar's interest rate
advantage.
The dollar turned higher against the euro and yen, buoyed by
U.S. President Donald Trump's promise to impose tariffs on
imported computer chips, pharmaceuticals and steel in an effort
to persuade the producers to make them in the United States.
Dollar/yen rose 0.7% to 155.63, snapping three
straight down sessions magnified by Monday's drop in Treasury
yields as investors sought the safety of U.S. government debt.
Yields firmed on Tuesday.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction
to markets on Wednesday:
- Australia CPI (Dec & Q4)
- Japan Consumer Confidence (Jan)
- Federal Reserve rate decision
- Meta, Tesla, Microsoft ( MSFT ) report earnings