It's Friday, so today I'll provide a quick overview of

what's happening in global markets and then offer you some

weekend reading suggestions away from the headlines.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at

[email protected].

Today's Market Minute

* The Trump administration has proposed a new, more expansive

minerals deal with Ukraine, according to three people familiar

with the ongoing negotiations and a summary of a draft proposal

obtained by Reuters.

* CoreWeave reduced the size of its U.S. initial public offering

and priced its shares below the indicated range, the company

said on Thursday, dampening expectations that the listing would

boost investor appetite for IPOs.

* Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said on Thursday that he

would respond with unspecified trade actions if U.S. President

Donald Trump imposes new auto tariffs that have expanded a

global trade war and hammered stocks.

* Oil prices retreated on Friday amid tariff-related demand

concerns, but headed for a third weekly gain on a tightening

global supply outlook after the U.S. placed more pressure on

Venezuelan and Iranian oil trade.

* Core consumer inflation in Japan's capital accelerated in

March on steady gains in food costs, data showed on Friday,

keeping alive market expectations of a near-term interest rate

hike.

The market's epic swoon

While the week's trade war fears have cast a pall over world

stock markets, bond markets are grappling with a complex mix of

subdued inflation, tariff-related future price fears and

mounting public debt.

U.S. President Donald Trump's auto tariff announcement this week

elicited promises of retaliatory action as well as last minute

negotiations to head off further sweeping tariff moves next

week.

Most economists' believe a widespread trade war will depress

global growth and lift inflation - by how much and for how long

remains a matter of debate.

Wall Street clearly isn't happy with what it's seeing. The

S&P 500 closed in the red again on Thursday, cowering

below its 200-day moving average as the first quarter limps to a

close.

With stocks around the world deep in the red again on

Friday, U.S. futures are down again ahead of the bell.

Trade war concerns remain the dominant issue rattling markets,

but rancorous geopolitics - over messy Ukraine ceasefire talks

and also Trump's apparent desire to annex Greenland - aren't

helping.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, gold prices hit a new record

on Friday, clocking a 17% gain for 2025 so far.

The whole picture is even more complicated for bond markets,

with 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields hitting their highest

in over a month on Thursday, even as shorter-dated yields

remained subdued. That expanded the 2-year and 30-year yield

spread to its widest in three years.

The growth and inflation calculus from the brewing trade war

may explain some of this move.

But in the meantime, U.S. inflation numbers remain subdued,

and the high-frequency hard data show that the growth picture is

holding up. Though, of course, the new trade barriers have yet

to be imposed.

The Federal Reserve's favoured inflation gauge from the

personal consumption expenditures series is due for release on

Friday and expected to show that headline inflation remained

steady at 2.5% last month.

That combination, along with the continued retreat of stock

prices, helped push 10-year Treasury yields lower on

Friday, though longer term concerns continue to rankle.

With this year's budget impasse in Washington still unresolved

and debt ceiling pressures due to build, U.S. debt metrics

continue to ring alarms.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office on Thursday

projected significant increases in federal budget deficits and

debt over the next 30 years as it sketched out rising servicing

costs, sluggish economic growth and a shrinking workforce.

A lot can happen over 30 days, never mind 30 years. But even

with that caveat, the CBO's numbers are unnerving. It shows

federal deficits accelerating to 7.3% of GDP in fiscal year 2055

from 6.2% in 2025, well above the 3.9% average over the past 30

years. This would bring the U.S. debt/GDP ratio to 156% of GDP

in 2055, topping World War Two levels.

Currency rates remain relatively contained, as markets wait

for the details of next week's tariff moves. The dollar index

was a touch firmer on Friday.

But in the background, fractious geopolitics between America and

its traditional allies is forcing some strategists to look again

at the dollar's dominant role in the world economy and finance,

with knock-on implications for global holdings of dollar

reserves and Treasuries.

Weekend reading suggestions

Here are some articles away from the day-to-day headlines

that you may find interesting.

* Sino shrug. The U.S. Council on Foreign Relations' 'RealEcon'

team traveled across the country asking Americans what they

think of trade, aid and other international economic policies.

One curious finding is that Americans are less concerned about

China than those in Washington.

* Less-strict. In this week's newsletter from Brussels-based

think tank Bruegel, director Jeromin Zettelmeyer discuss the

workability of Germany's dramatic fiscal reforms, which include

steep defence and infrastructure spending increases. Even though

he views them as sustainable debt-wise, Zettelmeyer flags a few

risks from European Union budget rules.

* Joe-flation. If your favourite coffee beans have vanished from

the shelves, don't worry - they will return soon. The bad news

is they will be up to 25% more expensive, write Reuters' Maytaal

Angel, Marcelo Teixeira and Jessica DiNapoli.

* Wiggle room. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office this month

calculated how changes to variables in its economic forecasts

might affect the budget deficit over time. One conclusion was

that if interest rates for Treasury bills to 10-year notes were

just 0.1 percentage point higher than its current assumptions on

an annual basis, then, all else equal, the cumulative deficit

for the 2026-35 decade would be $351 billion higher.

* Wilderness. A multimedia report from Reuters' Nacho Doce and

Charlie Devereux explains how wild horses cut the risk of wild

fires in Spain. There are some wonderful photographs to

illustrate.

* GDP Plus. The United Nations' Trade and Development arm

(UNCTAD) this month released its own measure of global economic

progress: the so-called 'Inclusive Growth Index', which combines

GDP with other data on living conditions, equality and

environmental sustainability. Luxembourg, Norway and Denmark

continue to lead with only two emerging economies in the top 30.

Chart of the day

The U.S.'s long-term borrowing rates are rising while

short-dated Treasury yields are staying subdued, widening the

so-called yield curve gap between 2-year notes and 30-year bonds

to its largest in three years. This would typically signal

higher economic growth ahead, but it may also signal longer-term

inflation and debt supply risks.

Meanwhile, the New York Fed's estimate of the 'term

premium' investors demand to cover long-term uncertainties is

creeping higher again, although it is still below the 10-year

highs hit in January.

Today's events to watch

* US February personal consumption expenditures (PCE)

inflation gauge; final reading of University of Michigan's March

consumer surveys; Canada January gross domestic product; Mexico

February jobless rate

* Federal Reserve Board Governor Michael Barr and Atlanta

Fed President Raphael Bostic speak; European Central Bank Vice

President Luis de Guindos speaks

* U.S. Vice President JD Vance visits Greenland

* European Union Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic visits

China

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.