It's Friday, so today I'll provide a quick overview of

what's happening in global markets and then offer you some

weekend reading suggestions away from the headlines.

I'd love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at

[email protected].

Today's Market Minute

* Trump's tariffs have sown fears of trade wars, recession and a

$2,300 iPhone.

* How many people does it take to slap a tariff on a penguin?

One. Donald Trump's formula for calculating his tariffs mean

even remote, frozen islands inhabited solely by the little birds

are getting hit by those levies.

* Japanese banks are the latest casualty in the market turmoil

that Trump's tariffs have unleashed, with a sector index in

Tokyo staging its biggest one-day fall since last August.

* French President Emmanuel Macron has called for European

companies to suspend planned investment in the US after Trump's

announcement of sweeping global tariffs on American imports.

* Trump's tariffs are worrying some at home too. One US Senate

Republican is pushing to require congressional approval for new

tariffs.

'Magnificent' bear

The still ongoing tariff-inspired rout on Wall Street and in

stock markets around the world centres heavily on the once

'Magnificent Seven' megacap U.S. tech stocks, which are now

likely in the front line of the global trade war.

Thursday saw the biggest one-day losses for U.S. equity

indexes since the pandemic shocks of 2020,

with drops of 4-7%. Popular funds tracking the 'Mag 7' tumbled

in time, losing 7% on the day and clocking a 25% drop from

December's record highs. The group is now in a technical bear

market for the first time since it emerged two years ago.

The 'Mag 7' epitomized the "U.S. exceptionalism" theme for

investors around the world, so many suspect this rapid reversal

may be emblematic of how the trade shock will unfold. Europe,

for one, sees Big Tech as a legitimate target in likely tariff

retaliation, as the U.S. runs a trade surplus in services and

digital-related trade with the region.

French President Emmanuel Macron called on European firms to

suspend U.S. investments until negotiations get underway.

With U.S. President Donald Trump claiming his trade plans are

"going well", U.S. and global recession fears are mounting. In a

note entitled "There will be Blood", JPMorgan on Thursday raised

its chances of a worldwide economic recession this year to 60%

from 40%.

Trade-related downturn fears were further reinforced by

slowing service sector readings from ISM's March survey on

Thursday.

U.S. stock futures show no sign of recovery early on

Friday and look set to extend losses by another 1% before the

week is out, as the VIX 'fear index' rises above 30 for the

first time since last August's yen-related volatility

explosion.

Recession worries also pummeled bank stocks around the world,

with Japanese banks hit by up to 10% on Friday.

In turn, futures markets are now pricing in four Federal

Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Ten-year Treasury yields

fell below 4% for the first time in six months, with

U.S. corporate 'junk' spreads rising above 400 basis points for

the first time since 2023.

Hit by global demand fears and OPEC production hikes, U.S. crude

oil saw prices fall to their lowest since 2023.

The dollar's plunge this week is perhaps the most

startling of all the big moves as it normally gets a 'safe

haven' boost in times of stress. The break with this pattern

suggests foreign investors might be fleeing from U.S. assets at

large. The greenback did perk up somewhat from the year's lows

on Friday, however.

All eyes will be on Fed Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks on

Friday. Currently, Fed officials still appear to see no urgency

to cut rates, as the jobs market remains firm and the inflation

picture continues to be murky due to tariffs.

Friday's March payrolls are being released today, but like

so many upcoming economic releases, they will not be overly

useful because they will not capture the implications of this

week's tariff shock. Profit warnings and guidance cuts from the

first-quarter corporate earnings season starting next week will

probably be more significant.

Weekend reading suggestions

Here are some articles away from the day-to-day headlines

that you may find interesting.

* Family fortunes? As World Liberty Financial raised more than

half a billion dollars, President Donald Trump's family took

control of the crypto venture and grabbed the lion's share of

those funds, aided by governance terms that industry experts say

favor insiders. Reuters correspondents Tom Wilson, Tom Bergin,

Lawrence Delevingne and Michelle Conlin look into the issue

surrounding World Liberty crypto tokens.

* Not-so-free markets? This month's edition of the International

Monetary Fund's Finance & Development magazine has a piece from

Oren Cass, founder of the conservative think tank American

Compass. He critiques interpretations of Adam Smith's famed

'invisible hand' reference from his seminal book "The Wealth of

Nations". With an invisible nod to the week's events, he argues

a post-World War Two obsession with unfettered global capitalism

and free trade was misplaced and based on a misunderstanding of

Smith.

* Forgone conclusion? Writing for Project Syndicate, economists

Paola Subacchi and Paul van den Noord examine the risk to U.S.

Treasuries from foreign investor flight and reckon that the

'convenience yield' from holding U.S. government debt should

prevent overseas holdings from dissipating rapidly.

* Elon-gated? Tesla's quarterly sales plunged 13% to the weakest

in nearly three years, hurt by a backlash against CEO Elon

Musk's politics, rising global competition and people waiting

for a refresh of its highest-selling electric vehicle Model Y.

Reuters photographers capture just some of the visible protests

against the Tesla boss seen at home and abroad in recent weeks.

* Dude, where's my car? Soaring demand for Toyota's

gasoline-electric hybrids has left suppliers struggling to keep

pace, leading to shortages of parts and months-long waits for

car buyers. Reuters correspondents Aditi Shah and Norihiko

Shirouzu report how stocks of hybrids are low at Toyota dealers

across major markets, including the U.S., Japan, China and

Europe.

Chart of the day

Historically, the borrowing premium for risky U.S. corporate

debt still seems well contained, but trade-related recession

fears are starting to bite in a high-yield bond market that was

recently priced for perfection. 'Junk' spreads topped 400 basis

points on Thursday for the first time since 2023, with measures

of high yield volatility hitting their highest in two

years as stocks tumbled. While falling Treasury yield benchmarks

are a factor, the expanding spreads also reflect worries that a

recession and idiosyncratic trade and supply-chain stress could

lead to rising default rates.

Today's events to watch

* U.S. March employment report; Canada March employment

report

* Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and Fed Board

Governors Christopher Waller and Michael Barr speak

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.