U.S. stocks took heart from the Federal Reserve's benign actions

this week, taking solace in Chair Jerome Powell's relatively

sanguine view of the potential inflationary effects of rising

trade tariffs and announcements of a sharp slowdown in the Fed's

balance sheet unwind.

Today I'll discuss the effects of the Fed's statements as

well as President Donald Trump's reaction. And then I'll

consider how the unemployment calculations the Fed uses to

assess the nation's health could be impacted by prospective

retirees anxiously eyeing their falling 401ks. This and more

market analysis is below.

Today's Market Minute

* The Federal Reserve has signalled it is no rush to cut U.S.

interest rates, drawing the ire of President Donald Trump, who

demanded in a social media post the central bank "do the right

thing".

* Trump hosted a sit-down with top oil executives at the White

House on Wednesday, charting plans to boost domestic energy

production amid tumbling crude prices and a looming global trade

war.

* Trump will sign a long-anticipated executive order on Thursday

that aims to shut down the Department of Education, acting on a

key campaign pledge, according to a White House summary seen by

Reuters.

* Eli Lilly has launched its blockbuster diabetes and

weight-loss drug Mounjaro in India, the world's most populous

country, which is seeing increasing rates of obesity and

diabetes.

* European Union leaders will commit to doing more to make the

bloc more competitive with more military muscle in the face of

U.S. tariffs, other economic challenges and doubts over

Washington's future backing in defence.

Central banks on parade

After a parade of global central bank meetings on Thursday,

attention will turns to April 2's planned tariff hikes.

Wall Street stock futures held onto Wednesday's gains

overnight, and Treasury yields fell on news of the

slowdown in quantitative tightening and Fed policymakers'

restated forecast for two rate cuts this year. Futures have now

pushed up the odds of a third cut to 50%.

The dollar climbed against most currencies despite

falling U.S. yields, perhaps because traders are positioning for

next month's tariff hikes. The currency moves may also reflect

some profit-taking on the euro and euro zone stocks after the

euphoric reception to Germany's recent fiscal shock.

And yet, all told, the Fed's actions were mostly

underwhelming. Growth forecasts were cut compared to those made

three months ago, while the inflation outlook rose. And the

balance sheet maneuver was actually less that the full pause

many in the market had expected.

Perhaps the most interesting element was President Donald

Trump's post-meeting intervention.

"The Fed would be MUCH better off CUTTING RATES as U.S.

Tariffs start to transition (ease!) their way into the economy.

Do the right thing." His comments ended a relatively long period

of not criticizing Fed policy

Although Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has sought to calm

fears about any challenge to the Fed's operational independence,

Washington analysts pointed to Trump's firing this week of two

Democratic commissioners at the Federal Trade Commission as a

test of the independence of all agencies, including the Fed.

And now on to today deep dive, where I'll examine how

this year's Wall Street stock swoon may affect prospective

retirees' decision on when to stop working - and possibly even

the unemployment rate.

Wall Street jolt may jog jobless rate

In another potential feedback loop from falling stocks to the

real economy, some economists now fear the risk of delayed

retirement on the long-subdued U.S. unemployment rate.

One of the many reasons cited for the persistently low U.S.

jobless rate in recent years has been the peaking wave of

Americans reaching retirement age and leaving the workforce.

Some may have left early during the pandemic, and others may

have been encouraged to go by savings pots flush from years of

booming stock prices.

But that decision has never affected more people than it

will this year.

According to the Washington-based non-profit Alliance for

Lifetime Income, a record 4.18 million U.S. workers hit

retirement age in 2025, an average of 11,400 Americans turning

65 every day. And that record is set to hold for 20 years until

the larger 'Millennial' cohort starts to trip over the line.

As is well known, many of these retirees haven't stocked

away enough cash. There are acres of reports on the inadequacy

of retirement savings and the questionable viability of social

security. Indeed, there's a whole industry formed around

encouraging people to save more.

The Alliance data shows more than half of 'Baby Boomers'

turning 65 between 2024 and 2030 have assets of $250,000 or

less, on average. And most can expect to live another 20 years.

Given this reality, the jarring shakeout in Wall Street

stock indexes this year may force some would-be retirees to hang

on in the workforce.

Michael Reid, U.S. Economist at RBC Capital Markets,

reckons an enduring stock market retreat could well have a

meaningful effect on the labor market and unemployment

calculations.

"If you see a stock market correction, it could not only

impact the spending from that cohort but we're also talking

about an upside risk to our unemployment forecast. Some of those

folks may delay retirement by a year or two."

Employers replacing workers who retire adds nothing to

overall payroll growth, he added, but high rates of retirement

remove people from the overall labor force, suppressing the

participation rate and hence the jobless rate calculations.

By extension, delays to retirement may buoy the available

labor force and potentially the rate of unemployment for a given

level of payrolls.

PART-TIME AND PARTICIPATION

Multiple cross-currents complicate the employment picture,

of course, including new limits on immigration, which has played

a critical role in expanding the workforce in recent years.

Concern about worker shortages has been rising, partly due

to immigration curbs, so many see higher labor force

participation rates as warranted. Though prospective retirees

are unlikely to fill factory roles or unskilled manual work

often taken up by recent migrants.

High-frequency data on the scale of U.S. retirement is

elusive, but the labor force participation rate has been

declining of late, hitting a two-year low of 62.4% in February

and still below pre-pandemic levels.

And at just 4.1%, the unemployment rate has now been pegged

below 4.5% for more than three years.

However, other measures of unemployment aren't so rosy. A

broader measure, which includes those who want to work but have

given up searching and those working part-time because they

cannot find full-time employment, surged to 8% in last month's

jobs report - the highest since 2021.

The extent to which retirees are included in that part-time

work calculation is unclear.

General anxiety is rising again within the economy - judging

from business and household surveys, though not all the hard

data yet. And how much of the angst translates into changed

plans, decision-making and investment hinges largely on the

government policy trajectory from here.

Anecdotally at least, Reuters reporting shows many older

workers are sufficiently discombobulated by the combination of

government upheavals and stock market volatility to worry about

stopping work.

Stock values and savings pots are just one of many factors

in this mix, of course, and stock corrections have come and gone

quickly in the past.

But a longer-term market drawdown from such lofty levels may

have more impact on the ageing U.S. population than it did in

the past - adding a twist for the Federal Reserve and others to

read employment market.

Chart of the day

Return to ZIRP? Most central banks insist monetary policy norms

have shifted since the pandemic hit, geopolitical alliances were

fractured and global supply chains ruptured. A return to zero

interest rate policies of the decade after the 2008 banking

crash, they argue, is highly unlikely in what's likely a more

inflationary world. But the Swiss National Bank may have missed

the memo, cutting its main policy rates to just 0.25% on

Thursday. It has also frequently declined to rule out a return

to negative interest rates if needed.

Today's events to watch

* Bank of England policy decision

* U.S. weekly jobless claims, Q4 current account, March

Philadelphia Federal Reserve business survey, February existing

home sales; Canada February producer prices

* Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks; European Central

Bank policymakers Philip Lane, Klaas Knot and Robert Holzmann

speak

* European Union summit in Brussels

* U.S. corporate earnings: FedEx, Micron Technology, Nike,

Accenture, Lennar, Dardan Restaurants, Jabil, Factset

* U.S. Treasury sells 10-year inflation protected securities

Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect

the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, is

committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.