(Updates throughout after European open, adds charts and
comment)
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Stocks extend global selloff on Trump's tariffs
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Banks suffer as investors worry about global recession
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Traders ramp up bets on Fed, BoE, ECB rate cuts
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Safe-haven assets rise, 10-year UST yield falls below 4%
By Harry Robertson and Rae Wee
LONDON/SINGAPORE, April 4 (Reuters) - Global stocks slid
for a second day on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump's
sweeping tariff plans wiped $2.4 trillion off Wall Street
equities, sending investors running for cover in government
bonds as recession fears gripped markets.
Banking stocks cratered as investors fretted about growth
and priced in far more central bank rate cuts, with benchmark
10-year U.S. Treasury yields sliding to their lowest since
October, after Trump slapped a 10% tariff on most U.S. imports
and much higher levies on dozens of countries.
"If the current slate of tariffs holds, a Q2 or Q3 recession
is very possible, as is a bear market," said David Bahnsen,
chief investment officer at The Bahnsen Group.
"The question is, does President Trump seek some sort of
off-ramp for these policies if and when we see a bear market in
the stock market."
Europe's STOXX 600 slid 1.1% in early trading after
shedding 2.6% on Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 slumped 2.8%
overnight for a second session running.
Futures for the U.S. S&P 500 fell 0.4% on Friday,
pointing to a more contained drop at the open than on Thursday,
when the cash index plunged 4.8% in its biggest one-day fall
since the COVID-19 crisis in 2020.
Nasdaq futures were down 0.3% after the index
dropped 5.4% on Thursday.
After years of huge inflows into U.S. markets and stellar
performance by the American economy, investors are suddenly
fretting about a reversal in growth
The risk of a U.S. and global recession this year has risen
to 60% from 40% earlier after Trump's tariff announcements, J.P.
Morgan said.
BANKS SLIDE AS RATE CUT BETS RISE
Traders on Friday were pricing in more than 100 basis points
of Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, up from around 75 basis
points on Wednesday, and increased their bets on Bank of England
and European Central Bank reductions too.
Lower interest rates - which dent lenders' margins - and
worries about growth battered banking stocks, with the STOXX 600
banking index shedding 4.2% in early trading.
HSBC ( HSBC ) shares dropped 3.2%, UBS fell 2.5%
and BNP Paribas slid 3.4%.
That followed an 8% rout for Japanese banks overnight
and a sharp sell-off of Wall Street lenders on
Thursday. Citigroup ( C/PN ) dropped more than 12%, Bank of America ( BAC )
sank 11% and a host of other major lenders suffered
similar falls.
The most obvious sign of nerves about the health of the U.S.
economy and markets was a 1.9% drop in the dollar index
on Thursday, the biggest fall since November 2022.
The dollar found a footing on Friday, however, with the euro
down 0.5% after rallying 1.9% on Thursday, while the
pound fell 0.7%.
Japan's yen, a traditional safe haven, held
broadly steady after rallying around 2% the previous day. The
Swiss franc, another safe haven, perked up about 0.6%.
"The thing that might help markets a little bit is that we
get data that suggests that, actually, we are going to get
1%-plus growth in the U.S. in the last quarter," said Michael
Metcalfe, head of macro strategy at State Street Global Markets.
Metcalfe pointed to U.S. nonfarm payrolls data, due at 1230
GMT (8.30 a.m. ET), as one key data point and retail sales
figures in two weeks as another.
Friday's employment data is expected to show the U.S.
economy added 135,000 jobs in March, down from 151,000 in
February.
As investors continued to hunt for safety, 10-year U.S.
government bond, or Treasury, yields fell 11 basis
points to 3.951%, after sliding 14 basis points on Thursday.
Yields move inversely to prices.
Japanese 10-year government bond yields were
set for their biggest weekly fall - at 37 basis points - since
1990 and last traded at 1.175%.
Some investors remained nervous about central banks' room
for action should tariffs drive up inflation.
"Central banks are not well-equipped to deal with
stagflation," said David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie
Group. "Stronger core inflation is likely to limit the extent of
any policy response."