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Stocks and oil tumble after Trump tariff plans
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Bonds, yen and other traditional safe havens rally
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Fears of global recession mount, Asia hit hard
By Marc Jones
LONDON, April 3 (Reuters) - World stock markets and oil
prices tumbled and investors dashed to the relative safety of
bonds, gold and the yen on Thursday, as President Donald Trump's
drastic U.S. trade tariffs stirred widespread fears of a global
recession.
A new baseline 10% tariff on imported goods plus some
eye-watering additional 'reciprocal' tariffs on countries Trump
said put high trade barriers on the U.S., left traders clearly
rattled.
In Europe, where the 27 country EU bloc now faces a 20%
reciprocal levy, bourses lurched between 1.3% and 2% lower early
on as Brussels and other capitals in the region were left in
uproar.
Tokyo had slumped 2.7% in Asia overnight to leave it
on course for its worst week in nearly two years. Wall
Street futures were down 3%, while the dollar
dropped more that 1% to a six-month low.
Analysts at JPMorgan said the tariffs were, "significantly
higher than the realistic worst-case scenario" they have been
envisaging.
Credit rating agency Fitch warned they were a "game-changer"
for both the U.S. and global economy, while Deutsche Bank called
them a "once-in-a-lifetime" event that could easily knock
between 1%-1.5% off U.S. growth this year.
"Many countries will likely end up in a recession," Fitch's
Olu Sonola said. "You can throw most forecasts out the door if
this tariff rate stays on for an extended period of time."
The scramble for ultra-safe government bonds that provide a
guaranteed income drove U.S. Treasury yields down towards 4% and
Germany's 10-year yield, the European benchmark
borrowing rate, went 8.5 basis points lower to 2.64%.
The sweeping tariffs will raise effective import taxes in
the world's largest economy to the highest levels in a century.
If they do trigger recessions, central banks around the world
are likely to slash interest rates which benefits bonds.
Nasdaq futures were down 3.2% ahead of what was expected to
be a turbulent U.S. restart.
Apple's ( AAPL ) market capitalisation had dropped by more
than $240 billion as its shares slid 7% in after-hours trade on
Wednesday. Nvidia's ( NVDA ) market cap dropped 5.6% or $153
billion, adding to the trillions wiped off the 'Magnificent
Seven' tech giants already this year.
Trump levies hit Asia particularly hard.
China was slapped with a 34% levy, Japan got 24%, South
Korea 25% and Vietnam 46%. Vietnamese stocks tumbled 6.7%
in response. Australian shares and the Aussie dollar also fell
as the country was hit too.
CHINA FOCUS
With countries from China and Canada to Europe all promising
countermeasures, investors were selling exposure to global
growth.
Oil, a proxy for economic activity, dropped as much 3% to
put benchmark Brent futures back below $73 a barrel and
on course for its worst day of the year so far.
Gold hit a record high above $3,160 an ounce before
running out of steam while Japan's yen jumped more than 1.5% to
147.01 per dollar as foreign exchange traders looked for
safety outside the U.S. dollar.
The Swiss franc, another traditional safety play,
touched its strongest level in four months as the euro
jumped 1% too to $1.0970.
"Eye-watering tariffs on a country-by-country basis scream
'negotiation tactic', which will keep markets on edge for the
foreseeable future," said Adam Hetts, global head of multi-asset
and portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors.
China held its currency relatively steady, containing the
yuan's drop to about 0.4% despite total tariffs of above 50% on
Chinese exports and the hit to Vietnam seen as shutting down a
popular work-around route.
China's big domestic economy and the hope of support from
Beijing limited losses in Hong Kong stocks to about 1.5%
and in Shanghai to around 0.5%.
"The key focus over the next few days should clearly be
China," said Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos.
"How willing will China be to wait for trade negotiations
... or to absorb this?," he said. "Or will it try to 'export'
the shock ... via a devaluation of the yuan."
(Additional reporting by Tom Westbrook in Singapore
Editing by Shri Navaratnam)