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Asian stock markets: https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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Euro down a fraction as France heads for hung parliament
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Stocks underpinned by hopes for Sept Fed rate cut
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Week features US CPI data, Fed's Powell, corporate
earnings
(Adds quote in paragraphs 5-6, updates prices throughout)
By Nell Mackenzie and Wayne Cole
LONDON/SYDNEY, July 8 (Reuters) - World stocks held just
below record highs on Monday, with sentiment slightly cautious
as growth woes in China and the prospect of political deadlock
in France took the shine off optimism about a U.S. interest rate
cut as early as September.
European shares reversed early falls, but U.S.
stock futures were broadly flat and Japan's Nikkei
slipped 0.32% while the Chinese blue-chip index was
off 0.9%.
China's bond yields rose as the central bank launched new
money market operations to increase its market liquidity.
Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks ended lower, with a key
index logging its fifth straight losing session. Investors were
disappointed by a lack of policy stimulus measures amid a weak
economic recovery, rising geopolitical tensions and foreign
outflows.
In France, a leftist alliance unexpectedly took top spot
ahead of the far right in Sunday's election, a major upset that
was set to prevent Marine Le Pen's National Rally from running
the government.
The weaker than expected showing for the far right was
something of a relief for investors, though they also have
concerns the left's plans could unwind many of President
Emmanuel Macron's pro-market reforms.
"Market uncertainty has somewhat decreased following the
election, as the prospects for significant increases in public
spending are low, given that neither left-wing nor far-right
parties secured an absolute majority," said Bruno Schneller,
managing director at Erlen Capital Management.
"Nevertheless, a political risk premium is likely to
persist, and any rebound in the market is expected to be
short-lived," said Schneller.
The single currency steadied at $1.0837, having
been as high as $1.0843 on Friday when a soft U.S. jobs report
undermined the dollar.
The euro was up 0.2% against the yen at 174.54.
The dollar stood at 161.04 yen, just off its recent
top of 161.86.
The closely-watched France-Germany 10-year government bond
yield spread dropped one basis point (bp) to around 64 bps, its
narrowest since June 13, but then widened in later trading.
"French government bonds are currently not attractive," said
Schneller.
France's sovereign credit outlook is worsening amid a high
and increasing debt ratio, substantial fiscal deficits, and
rising funding costs, he added.
Europe's region-wide STOXX 600 and the CAC 40
in Paris were both up over 0.4% after early falls.
Across the pond, U.S. equity futures steadied.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both
nearly flat. Earnings season kicks off later this week when
Citigroup ( C/PN ), JP Morgan and Well Fargo all
report.
Investors took Friday's jobs report as adding to the case
for a September rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with futures
now implying a 77% chance of a move.
Markets also have 53 bps of easing priced in for this year,
up from around 40 bps a month ago.
"Three-month payroll growth fell sharply to +177k from +249k
as previously reported, driven by 111k of downward revisions,"
wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs.
"We continue to expect the FOMC to deliver its first cut in
September, followed by quarterly cuts to a terminal rate of
3.25-3.5%."
In London trade, 10-year U.S. Treasury yields
were up around 4 bps at 4.31% on Monday, having been as high as
4.49% early last week.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will have a chance to offer his
outlook when he appears before Congress on Tuesday and
Wednesday, while several other Fed officials are speaking this
week.
The main economic event will be the U.S. consumer price
report on Thursday, where headline inflation is expected to slow
to 3.1%, from 3.3%, with the core steady at 3.4%.
German inflation data are out the same day, while China
releases consumer prices and trade figures this week.
In commodity markets, gold fell from near one-month
highs in earlier trading to stand down 0.8% at $2,372 an ounce.
Oil prices slipped as the market waited to see what impact
Hurricane Beryl might have on supplies from the Gulf of Mexico.
Brent fell 81 cents to $85.73 a barrel, while U.S. crude
dropped 95 cents to $82.21 per barrel.