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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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South Korea stocks slide, Wall St futures flat
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Little market reaction to Syria, oil fraction firmer
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ECB, SNB and BoC all seen cutting rates this week
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Dec 9 (Reuters) - Asian shares were dragged by a
slide in South Korea on Monday ahead of a packed week of central
bank meetings that should see borrowing costs take a step lower,
while U.S. inflation data are the last hurdle to a further
policy easing there.
Political tumult in France and South Korea was joined by the
fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime, which
complicated an already fraught situation in the Middle East.
Still, the mood was generally upbeat after U.S. November
payrolls showed enough of a recovery to assuage concerns of a
slowdown, but not so much as to forestall a rate cut from the
Federal Reserve next week.
"Incoming data support our call for global growth lift into
year-end, despite a slipping Euro area and building political
stress," said Bruce Kasman, head of economic research at
JPMorgan.
"We expect policy rates in Canada, Euro area, and Sweden to
drop to 2% or lower over the coming year, while US and UK rates
settle close to 4%," he added. "This month's meetings should
point in this direction."
Futures imply an 85% chance on a quarter-point easing at the
Fed's Dec. 17-18 meeting, up from 68% ahead of the jobs figures,
and have a further three cuts priced in for next year.
That outlook combined with the bull run in tech stocks to
boost the Nasdaq market by over $1 trillion in value last week
alone. On Monday, S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures
were both little changed.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan
eased 0.2%. South Korean stocks fell
1.7% even as authorities pledged all-out efforts to stabilise
financial markets amid uncertainty over the fate of President
Yoon Suk Yeol.
Japan's Nikkei firmed 0.4%, helped by an upward
revision to economic growth.
Asia will also be alert to data on Chinese inflation later
in the session. The consumer price index is seen slipping 0.4%
in November, while the annual pace is expected to tick up to
0.5%.
China's Central Economic Work Conference is also scheduled
for this week, though markets are not sure if any new policies
will be announced.
The U.S. consumer price report is out Wednesday and the core
is seen holding at 3.3% for November, which should be no
impediment to a rate easing.
CENTRAL BANKS GALORE
Among the many policy meetings this week, the European
Central Bank is fully expected to cut by 25 basis points on
Thursday, with a one-in-five chance of 50 basis points.
"With geopolitical uncertainty high and conflicting signals
from hard and soft data, monetary policy remains the only game
in town to support economic activity, especially in the absence
of strong political leadership in Paris and Berlin," said
Barclays economist Christian Keller.
"We continue to expect consecutive 25bp cuts until June next
year, and then cuts in September and December to reach a
terminal rate of 1.5%."
Markets are leaning toward a half-point cut from the Swiss
National Bank on Thursday given slowing inflation and a desire
to stop the franc reaching record highs on the euro.
Canada's central bank is now expected to ease by a half
point on Wednesday following a shock rise in unemployment for
November.
The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its meeting on Tuesday
and is one of the few seen standing pat, while Brazil's central
bank is set to hike again to contain inflation.
In currency markets, the dollar index was flat at 106.010
after edging up 0.2% last week. The euro stood at $1.0557
, having bounced as high as $1.0629 on Friday before
the job figures boosted the dollar broadly.
The dollar was steady on the yen at 149.92, having
held to a 148.65 to 151.23 range last week as investors await
further guidance on the prospect of a near-term rate hike from
the Bank of Japan.
Geopolitical uncertainty helped gold edge up 0.4% to $2,643
an ounce, but it faces resistance at $2,666.
Oil prices gained some support from events in the Middle
East, though markets are preoccupied with the risk of weak
demand, particularly from China.
Brent added 9 cents to $71.21 a barrel, while U.S.
crude rose 12 cents to $67.32 per barrel.