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Asian stock markets : https://tmsnrt.rs/2zpUAr4
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Markets quiet as Japan on holiday, S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
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Rate cuts expected in Switzerland and Sweden this week
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Host of Fed speakers due as market wagers on another 50bp
By Wayne Cole
SYDNEY, Sept 23 (Reuters) - Asian stocks were steady on
Monday ahead of central bank meetings that are widely expected
to deliver two more rate cuts and key U.S. inflation figures
that should flash a green light for more easing there.
A holiday in Japan made for thin trading and MSCI's broadest
index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was
little changed, after bouncing 2.7% last week.
Japan's Nikkei was shut but futures were
trading at 38,300 compared to a cash close of 37,723. The index
rallied 3.1% last week as the yen eased from its highs and the
Bank of Japan (BOJ) signalled it was in no rush to tighten
policy further.
S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures were both
up 0.1%. The S&P is up 0.8% so far in September, historically
the weakest month for stocks, and has gained 19% year-to-date to
reach all-time highs.
More than 20 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges
on Friday, the busiest session since January 2021. Analysts at
BofA noted the S&P rises an average of 21% when there is no
recession in the 12-months after the start of Fed cuts.
Markets were still basking in the afterglow of the Federal
Reserve's half-point rate cut, with futures implying a 51%
probability it will deliver another outsized move in November.
"While the move was well flagged, its importance is hard to
overstate, given the Fed's role in USD liquidity conditions
worldwide," said Barclays economist Christian Keller.
"We note that initiating a cycle with a 50bp move without an
imminent financial crisis or jobs actually being lost is quite
unusual for the Fed," he added. "We thus think the step reveals
the Fed's determination to avoid a deterioration in labour
market conditions, or, in market jargon: to achieve a soft
landing."
At least nine Fed policy makers are speaking this week
including prepared remarks from Chair Jerome Powell, two
governors and New York Fed President John Williams.
MORE CUTS
Much will depend on what the Fed's preferred inflation
gauge, the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) show on
Friday. Analysts expect a 0.2% month-on-month rise taking the
annual pace to 2.7%, while the headline index is seen slowing to
just 2.3%.
The coming week also includes surveys on global
manufacturing, U.S. consumer confidence and durable goods.
The Swiss National Bank meets Thursday and markets are fully
priced for a quarter-point cut to 1.0%, with a 41% chance it
will ease by 50 basis points.
Sweden's central bank meets on Wednesday and is also
expected to ease by 25 basis points, again with some chance it
might go larger.
One bank not easing is the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)
which meets on Tuesday and is considered almost certain to hold
at 4.35% as inflation proves stubborn. (0#RBAWATCH>
Investors were also keeping a wary eye on negotiations to
avoid a U.S. government shut down with just days before the
current $1.2 trillion in funding runs out on Sept. 30.
Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson on
Sunday proposed a three-month stopgap funding bill but now it
has to go to vote.
In currency markets, the dollar edged up to 143.95 yen
, having bounced 2.2% last week from a 139.58 low. The
euro gained almost 3% last week to reach 160.71 yen,
while holding firm on the dollar at $1.1163.
Japan's LDP, which has a parliamentary majority, will elect
a new leader on Sept. 27, with the winner to replace outgoing
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida.
The U.S. rate cut combined with lower bond yields helped
keep gold up at $2,620 an ounce, just off an all-time
peak of $2,625,59.
Net long positions in Comex gold futures hit their highest
level in four years last week, suggesting some risk of a
pullback in the near term.
Oil prices were steady having rallied around 4% last week on
hopes lower borrowing costs would support global economic growth
and demand.
Brent added one cent to $74.47 a barrel, while U.S.
crude also firmed one cent to $71.01 per barrel.