LONDON, March 21 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied
natural gas (LNG) prices rose slightly this week but remained
close to a three-month low amid ample supply and mild weather
forecasts.
The average LNG price for May delivery into north-east Asia
was at $13.60 per million British thermal units
(mmBtu), up from $13.40/mmBtu last week, industry sources
estimated.
"It's currently a reactionary market: hard to forecast what
will happen next given an environment of new tariffs, sanctions
and potential new supply volume becoming operational," said Toby
Copson, chairman at Davenport Energy Partners.
"Conversely, we're coming in to summer procurement months so
that may push spot demand up and buoy current prices," he added.
Meanwhile, Asian demand for contracted LNG, such as from
Qatar, is strong with oil-linked contracts trending at a
discount to spot prices, said Laura Page, manager of gas and LNG
insight at Kpler.
"In particular, Qatari deliveries to Taiwan have been above
the five-year average in Q1 while deliveries to China are
picking up in March, likely displacing U.S. LNG which has been
subject to a 15% tariff since February 10," she added.
In India, a forecast heatwave could spur some LNG demand for
cooling despite LNG being too expensive for many Indian
importers at present, said Martin Senior, Argus head of LNG
pricing.
Asian prices are expected to remain stable next week,
supported by steady European gas movements, mild weather
forecasts, ample supply projections, and rising expectations of
restocking needs, said Ronald Pinto, LNG and gas analyst at data
analytics firm Kpler.
In Europe, above-average temperatures and a partial recovery
of wind generation are expected to keep prices range-bound next
week but could rise later in March as temperatures drop below
seasonal averages, Pinto added.
European storage inventories are around 34% full as the
market readies to switch from withdrawal to injection mode over
the coming months.
"Storage didn't come close to running out but filling it
will require Europe to continue competing strongly against Asia
for LNG across the summer, likely pricing some smaller new
importers out of the market," said Alex Froley, senior LNG
analyst at ICIS.
"But as LNG Canada and the next six trains at Corpus Christi
stage III ramp-up over the course of the summer this should add
quite a lot of extra LNG into the market," he added.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West
Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in
May on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.916/mmBtu on March 20, a
$0.70/mmBtu discount to the May gas price at the Dutch TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price for May delivery at $13.15/mmBtu,
while Spark Commodities assessed the April price at
$12.988/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good
Hope remained steady, incentivising U.S. cargoes to deliver to
Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates rose this week to
$31,000/day on Friday, the highest level this year so far, while
Pacific rates rose to $27,250/day, Afghan added.