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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG prices at 10-week low on weak demand, mild weather
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GLOBAL LNG-Asian spot LNG prices at 10-week low on weak demand, mild weather
Dec 20, 2024 7:41 AM

LONDON, Dec 20 (Reuters) - Asian spot liquefied natural

gas (LNG) prices fell this week to its lowest level in 10 weeks

amid mild weather and strong storage inventories.

The average LNG price for February delivery into north-east

Asia was at $13.30 per million British thermal units

(mmBtu), its lowest level since mid October and down from

slightly lower than $14.50/mmBtu last week, industry sources

estimated.

"The market is reasonably comfortable in immediate

supply/demand terms. China seems well-stocked and Japan is

bringing some new nuclear plants back in coming weeks," said

Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.

"Given normal weather and an absence of supply shocks, the

conditions could be in place for prices to begin a slow slide

over the first quarter of 2025, similar to last year," Froley

added.

Samuel Good, head of LNG pricing at Argus, said the easing

of Asian prices was due to weak downstream consumption in the

face of mild weather and was met by a spate of cargo offers.

Both Beijing and Seoul are expected to have mostly

above-average daily minimum temperatures for the end of this

month and through January. However, Tokyo was set for continued

colder weather throughout the period which could support

Japanese terminal throughput in the coming weeks, Good said.

In Europe, gas prices rose this week as uncertainty remains

over Russian gas flows to Europe with the end of the Ukraine gas

transit deal looming.

"Russia's pipeline flows through Ukraine will remain a key

focus of attention for traders across the holiday period," ICIS'

Froley said.

Florence Schmit, a European energy strategist at Rabobank,

said that Russian flows through Ukraine is unlikely to resume in

the first quarter of 2025, leaving Europe more exposed to higher

LNG import demand in the new year.

"As the amount of gas that will have to be replaced is

small, actual concern about supply availability is limited.

Demand in Asia and the pace of Europe's gas storage withdrawals

will be key in determining which market will become the premium

market in Q1," she added.

S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West

Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in

February on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $12.967/mmBtu on Dec. 19,

a $0.20/mmBtu discount to the February gas price at the Dutch

TTF hub.

Argus assessed the price at $12.990/mmBtu, while Spark

Commodities assessed the price for January delivery at

$12.913/mmBtu.

The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Panama Canal

is currently also signalling U.S. cargos are incentivised to

deliver to Northwest Europe, said Spark Commodities analyst

Qasim Afghan.

In LNG freight, Atlantic rates rose for the fourth week

running to $23,500/day on Friday, while Pacific rates rose to

$22,000/day, Afghan added.

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