(Updated at 10:10 EDT)
By Karen Brettell
July 30 (Reuters) - The Japanese yen weakened on Tuesday
before the Bank of Japan's decision on whether to hike rates
while the dollar gained before the Federal Reserve's meeting,
where any new clues of a September rate cut will be in focus.
The BOJ will announce its rate decision at the conclusion of
its two-day meeting on Wednesday. Markets are currently pricing
in a 55% chance of a 10 bps hike.
The yen weakened ahead of the decision as investors closed
positions following a significant rally this month that has seen
the greenback lose around 4% against the Japanese currency.
"We've obviously had a very big move in the month of July,"
said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.
Traders "are probably cleaning up ahead of the events, and
month-end flows are dominating today."
Some economists are also not convinced that the BOJ is ready
to hike rates.
"The market certainly has been quite excited about a rate
hike, but economists and Bank of Japan watchers are far less
certain," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.
The Japanese central bank will detail plans to taper its
huge bond buying as it steadily unwinds a decade of massive
monetary stimulus.
If the BOJ cuts its bond purchases and doesn't hike rates
that may be dovish or neutral, depending on the size of the
taper, while a larger cut in bond purchases with a rate hike
would be hawkish, said Bechtel.
But "either way... the yen is going to ultimately resolve
weaker over time. It's just a question of how long that time
period is," Bechtel said. "There's no point in being long the
yen because nobody wants to pay carry when they can earn carry
in a myriad of other ways in the FX market."
The dollar was last up 0.33% on the day at 154.52 yen
. It hit a 38-year high of 161.96 on July 3, as the
Japanese currency was hurt by the wide interest rate
differential between the U.S. and Japan. The yen has since
rallied with the help of several interventions by Japanese
authorities.
The 200-day moving average at around 151.6 yen is likely to
provide some support to the dollar.
The dollar gained 0.17% to 104.76 against a basket of
currencies, the highest since July 11, before the Fed on
Wednesday is expected to hold rates steady, but possibly give
stronger clues that it is closer to rate reductions.
Traders see a rate cut in September as certain and are also
pricing in a second and possibly third cut by year-end. The Fed
is wary of hinting at cuts too soon in case inflation rebounds,
which may make a signal more likely at the U.S. central bank's
economic symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next month more
likely.
The euro was down 0.2% at $1.0797 as investors
digested data showing the euro zone's economy grew slightly more
than expected in the three months to June, though a mixed
underlying picture and a string of pessimistic surveys cloud the
outlook for the rest of the year.
The German economy unexpectedly contracted in the second
quarter after skirting a recession at the beginning of the year
and July's inflation rose.
Sterling weakened 0.29% to $1.2822 before the Bank
of England's Thursday meeting. Market pricing sees it as roughly
a coin toss whether the BoE cuts rates.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 1.60% to $66,289.