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By Brigid Riley and Stefano Rebaudo
TOKYO, April 30 (Reuters) - The yen dropped against the
dollar on Tuesday, giving up some of its sharp gains the
previous day sparked by suspected intervention by Japanese
authorities.
The currency was down 0.40% to 157.00 per dollar,
but off its 34-year low of 160.245 hit on Monday when traders
say yen-buying intervention by Tokyo drove a eye-catching
rebound of nearly six yen.
Japanese authorities haven't confirmed that they had
stepped into the currency market in support of the yen, but
markets remain on heightened intervention alert ahead of the
Federal Reserve's monetary policy review this week.
Official figures that would reveal whether intervention did
in fact occur won't be available until late May.
While some market players had zeroed in on 160 yen per
dollar as the possible trigger for intervention, analysts said
Japanese authorities may not be targeting particular levels.
The Japanese currency still sits lower than it was
before the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) policy announcement last week.
It has also suffered its largest monthly decline since January.
Investors expect Japanese bond yields will remain low for an
extended period. In contrast, U.S. rates are still relatively
high and provide enough latitude for yen bears.
"Facing that (the rates divergence) with forex intervention
typically does not end well," said Garvey Padhraic, regional
head of research Americas at ING.
"The more obvious solution to this is for Japanese rates
to rise. If they don't, something will have to give. And the
bigger the hold-out, the bigger is the subsequent reaction," he
added.
The Fed begins its two-day monetary policy meeting on
Tuesday, where it's expected to hold rates at 5.25%-5.5%, with
U.S. inflation proving to be sticky.
It's also expected to strike a hawkish message, meaning more
yen selling is likely, said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at
the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
"The implication is the MOF will likely be forced to step in
more than once to slow the rise in USD/JPY."
DIVERGENT ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS
While the timing of any possible rate hikes by the BOJ
remains vague, traders continue to pare back bets of Fed rate
cuts this year amid hotter-than-expected U.S. economic data and
stubborn inflation numbers.
A rate cut in September was looking like a close call at
just 44%, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.
The dollar rose to 0.16% to 105.69 against a basket of
currencies ahead of the Fed's meeting, after slipping
0.25% in the previous session.
"Fresh U.S. data has prompted our U.S. economist to push out
his projection of the start of the Fed's easing cycle to 2025
from December 2024," said Thierry Wizman, global forex and rates
strategist at Macquarie.
"We don't rule out that the next change may be a hike,
which would prompt a new wave of broad-based U.S. dollar
strength."
Other major central banks such as the European Central
Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) may begin to cut rates
in the near future, even if the policy path is more uncertain
after recent developments.
Euro zone inflation is on its way back to 2%, but the
process is bound to be bumpy and geopolitical tensions pose an
upside risk to price growth, ECB Vice President Luis
de Guindos
said late on Monday.
Markets could glean more clues on the timing of ECB's
rate-easing cycle from European inflation data this week due
later on Tuesday. Figures from Germany and Spain released on
Monday were roughly in line with expectations.
The euro fell 0.17% to $1.0719. Sterling
was last trading at $1.2531, down 0.25% on the day.
Elsewhere, a soft retail sales number out of Australia sent
the Aussie sliding, last down 0.60% at $0.653, as
markets further trimmed the risk of another rate hike by
September.
In China, manufacturing and services activity both
expanded at a
slower pace
in April.
The offshore Chinese yuan slipped 0.14% to $7.2523 per
dollar. Despite persistent support from the central bank, the
yuan has depreciated 2% against the dollar so far this year and
is on course for its fourth straight monthly onshore loss.
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin last rose 0.70% to
$63,357.00.