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German 10-year yield up 4 bps
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Germany's Ifo index ends four-month streak of declines
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Euro zone bank lending continues to rebound - ECB
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Moody's to review France's rating, DBRS to review Italy
(Updates)
By Medha Singh
LONDON Oct 25 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond
yields rose on Friday as a survey showing better than expected
business sentiment in Europe's largest economy dented some of
the appetite that pushed yields lower earlier this week.
German business morale in October's Ifo Institute survey
ended a four-month streak of declines, a breather for a country
that has been battling to fend off recession.
Separately, euro zone bank lending continued to rebound last
month and a measure of money supply, sometimes an indicator of
future economic growth, expanded more than expected, European
Central Bank data showed.
"The ECB is likely to take today's data release as
encouragement that taking their foot off the monetary brake
further will have an impact on the prospect of improving
economic activity," ING economist Bert Colijn said.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark
for the region, was up 3.5 basis points (bps) at 2.289% after
easing from a seven-week high of 2.334% earlier this week.
Latvian central bank chief Martins Kazaks
said
the ECB may need to ease policy somewhat faster than
earlier thought. That was in line with some policymakers who
have recently said inflation could soon fall below the bank's 2%
target.
However, three ECB officials tried to cool market
speculation of
bigger interest rate cuts
on Thursday, urging the central bank to proceed gradually
after three cuts this year.
Traders are currently fully pricing in a quarter-point
cut from the ECB in December, with a 36% chance of a half-point
move, up from 20% just a week ago.
Germany's two-year bond yield, more sensitive to
rate expectations, rose 4.5 bps to 2.143% after hitting a
three-week low in the previous session.
Growing bets on a second U.S. presidential term for Donald
Trump have been boosting U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar.
Economists expect Trump's policies, including plans to
raise import tariffs, to stoke inflation and weigh on the
struggling European economy.
Moody's review of France's sovereign rating will be in focus
later after it warned in July that the outcome of France's
election was a negative.
Fitch this month
cut France's outlook
to "negative" from "stable" and kept its rating at AA-. S&P
downgraded France to AA- in May.
UniCredit economist Tullia Bucco expected Moody's to
change its outlook, but did not expect that to move French
government bonds since its rating would remain one notch higher
than those of S&P and Fitch:
"The political situation remains uncertain, keeping
foreign investors concerned about the fiscal picture in France.
We think these two factors will offset each other, keeping the
10Y OAT-Bund spread at around its current level in the near
term," she said.
The spread between French and German
10-year yields - the premium investors demand to hold France's
bonds - was last at 74 bps, down from about 80 bps in late Sept.
Italy's 10-year yield was 3 bps higher at
3.492% ahead of rating agency DBRS's scheduled review of its
sovereign debt. The gap between Italian and German yields
stood at 120.9 bps.