(Updates yields at 1504 GMT)
By Stefano Rebaudo
July 19 (Reuters) - German Bund yields rose on Friday
but headed for a second weekly decline, as economic data and the
European Central Bank's policy meeting supported expectations
for a rate cut in September.
The ECB left rates unchanged on Thursday and did not provide
any guidance for the future, with President Christine Lagarde
saying that a move in September was "wide open."
Some ECB's hawkish policymakers are open to a cut in
September, provided incoming data confirm that disinflation is
continuing, four sources told Reuters on Thursday.
Commerzbank analysts mentioned a media report arguing that
policymakers were increasingly wondering if they may only be
able to cut once more this year and did not want investors to
assume that September is a done deal.
Lagarde's communication "carefully struck a balance between
hawkish and dovish pieces of information that have come to light
recently, with the evident intention of not arbitrating between
the two and of avoiding steering expectations either way", Citi
analysts said.
"But if forward-looking indicators and survey data are
reliable, there is every reason to believe that the Governing
Council will find cause to ease policy in September."
Data showed early this week that German investor morale
deteriorated more than expected in July, registering its first
fall in a year and suggesting the recovery in the euro zone's
largest economy will be bumpy.
Germany's 10-year government bond yield, the
euro area's benchmark, was up 6 basis points (bps) at 2.465% and
on track for a weekly fall of 3.1 bps.
"Our median baseline of no September rate cut still holds,
which is built on a combination of the strength of the labour
market, sticky underlying inflation, and the recovery of the
euro area growth," said Piet Haines Christiansen, director ECB
and fixed income research at Danske Bank.
"We repeat that a key risk to our ECB September rate call is
whether the Federal Reserve will cut in September and whether
this adds 'political' pressure to cut rates as well, despite the
sticky underlying inflation," he said.
Italy's 10-year government bond yield, the
benchmark for the euro area periphery, rose 6 bps to 3.76%.
French 10-year yields were up 5.8 bps at 3.12%,
in line with the broader market.
However, investors have closely watched developments in
France, as the lack of clear leadership could make the deficit
reduction process more challenging, making credit rating
agencies question France's AA rating.
Markets looked at U.S. President Joe Biden's fate in the
presidential race while chances of a win for Donald Trump have
kept rising. Analysts expect Trump to boost public spending and
cut taxes if he wins the Nov. 5 vote.
"The agenda he (Trump) pursues could continue to
perpetuate economic growth for the time being, even if there
will be a day when the commander-in-chief goes to battle against
a disgruntled bond market, only to learn that there are limits
on his power," said Mark Dowding, BlueBay chief investment
officer, RBC BlueBay Asset Management.
The difference between 10-year Treasury yields and Bunds
has widened by 3.8 bps this week - the most in a
week since April, to 175.91 bps, as investors have sold U.S.
debt fairly heavily, given the concern over the country's
finances should Trump win the election in November.