(Updates prices at 1554 GMT)
By Linda Pasquini
Sept 26 (Reuters) - The spread between French and German
10-year yields hit its widest in seven weeks on Thursday, as
rising expectations that the European Central Bank could cut
rates in October boosted bond prices overall, but French bonds
lagged amid political jitters.
Germany's 10-year bond yield fell 2.6 basis
points to 2.16% and France's was down 0.9 bps at 2.97%.
The spread between them, showing the greater
returns investors demand for holding French debt over safer
German bonds, hit 82 bps, its widest since Aug. 5, and up from
around 70 bps two weeks ago, before easing a touch.
Investors are monitoring French yields, which on Tuesday
rose above Spain's for the first time since 2008 amid concern
over the administration's ability to tackle the budget deficit.
French Prime Minister Michel Barnier needs to finalise a
2025 budget in days and hand it over to lawmakers by mid-October
at the latest. Budget Minister Laurent Saint-Martin warned the
deficit is at risk of topping 6% of economic output, far above
the 5.1% the previous government had estimated in the spring.
"We expect the government to struggle to pass a budget which
substantially reduces the deficit next year and, as a result, we
think the spread on French over German government bond yields is
likely to continue rising in the coming weeks and months,"
Andrew Kenningham and Hubert de Barochez, economists at Capital
Economics, said in a note.
Driving the fall in euro zone yields were expectations that
the ECB will cut rates at its October meeting.
Market pricing now reflects an about 60% chance of a cut
next month, up sharply from last week, as soft European business
activity survey, a downbeat German business morale report and a
fall in U.S. consumer confidence all suggest the European
economy is weakening and requires monetary easing.
Bond yields fell on Thursday after Reuters reported that
policy doves at the ECB are preparing to fight for an October
cut, a move likely to meet resistance from their more
conservative peers, seven sources told Reuters.
However, previous ECB messaging still suggests the doves
have a tough task.
"I think the bar is quite high for the ECB to cut interest
rates. The message from (ECB President Christine) Lagarde in
September was 'we would rather wait until December'," said Yvan
Mamalet, senior economist and strategist at Kleinwort Hambros.
"So you will need to see a very negative surprise on
inflation or further negative surprises on growth for the ECB to
cut in October. December is definite though."
French inflation data is due Friday, and other national and
bloc wide data follows next week.
Italy's 10-year yield was down 7.2 bps at 3.47%
and the rate sensitive German two-year yield was down 3.1 bps at
2.1%.
Euro zone bond yields however bounced off their day's lows,
helped by rising Treasury yields after data showed U.S. weekly
jobless claims unexpectedly fell, prompting traders to cut bets
that the Federal Reserve cut rates again by 50 bps at its
November meeting.