Nagaland Assembly elections will be held on February 27 and all the political parties in the state have intensified the campaigning. The results for the 60 constituencies will be announced on March 2. Going into the elections, several parties have thrown their name in the ring. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP) will continue to contest the elections together as part of the North East Democratic Alliance, the Naga People’s Front (NPF) will contest elections alone but hasn’t discounted any post-poll alliance to form a government. The Congress party has also decided to enter the electoral fray without any alliance.

Here is a look at the strengths and weaknesses of the political parties vying for power in the Nagaland Assembly elections.

BJP

Strengths –The BJP-NDPP government enjoys a unique position in Nagaland as there is no Opposition in the outgoing Assembly. BJP is contesting in 20 seats while it has left 40 seats to its alliance partner NDPP. BJP had won 12 seats in the last Assembly elections out of 20 seats it contested and the party is hopeful to increase its tally this time.

Weakness –Despite no Opposition in the Assembly, and even with the support of the NDPP, NPF and independent candidates, the party has not managed to arrive at a solution for the Naga political demands. With no significant progress in the negotiations with rebel groups, the party is heading into the election without any accepted political formula on the Naga issue.

Threats –With pressure mounting from Naga National Political groups (NNPGs), the BJP’s anti-conversion campaign in other states could result in the powerful church in the Christian-majority state expressing support for other parties.

Opportunities –With the NPF not ruling out a post-poll alliance for forming a government, the BJP could still find itself in power even if its alliance cannot cross the 31-seat mark in the assembly needed to form the government.

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NDPP

Strengths –Since the last election, the NDPP has managed to consolidate its political position in the state. Having won 17 seats out of the 40 it had contested in the previous election, the party also added 21 MLAs from NPF in 2022, which bolstered its numbers. The NDPP-led alliance also saw the NPF and independent MLAs join the government to find a political solution to the Naga issue.

Weakness– Much like the BJP, the NDPP is also facing pressure from Naga groups over its inability to arrive at an agreement between the government and the Naga rebels. Despite peace talks concluded in 2019, no final resolution has been achieved yet.

Threats– While the NDPP holds a commanding position in the state legislative assembly currently, it still received only around 25 percent of the votes in 2018 compared to 40 percent of the NPF. A resurgent NPF could play spoilsport for NDPP.

Opportunities –With over 40 incumbent MLAs in the Assembly, the NDPP could see itself winning over 30 seats on its own if it is able to manage anti-incumbency bias in the state.

NPF

Strengths –While the NPF has already declared its candidates for 22 seats, with more expected to follow, the party has not ruled out a post-poll alliance with other parties to form a government, allowing it a potential return to power.

Weakness –21 MLAs have quit the party to join the NDPP in less than a year time due to internal disputes. The NPF will need to ensure that it can hold onto the seats that it does manage to win.

Threats –Despite only holding just four seats in the assembly at the moment, the NPF was part of the incumbent government and can still face the brunt of anti-incumbent bias as well as pressure from Naga groups in the elections.

Opportunities– The previous election had seen the NPF emerge as the biggest party with 27 seats and 40 percent of the vote share. The party might still hold widespread public support in the state.

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Congress

Strengths –The Congress party has tried to become closer with the Church in the state as well as the Naga groups in order to put pressure against the parties in the incumbent government.

Weakness –The last election had been a washout for the party, with Congress securing not a single seat and an abysmal vote share.

Threats –The party’s actions to find common ground with the Church and NNPG may backfire if it is seen as just political theatre by the electorate.

Opportunities –With Congress being open to forming a post-poll alliance with “like-minded” parties, the party may find itself in a government with other parties if it manages to secure enough seats.

(Edited by : Sudarsanan Mani)