The Karnataka election is less than a month away and the political campaign and rhetoric have already hit an unparalleled fever pitch because of the high stakes.

The decision of Karnataka could well set the tone for not just for the 2019 general elections but also the bunch of state elections -- Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh -- due later this year.

For the Congress, the principle opposition party, a win in Karnataka will be a huge morale booster as it looks to unseat the ruling BJP in the three states that vote later this year. A triumph will also give the party to stake claim to lead a coalition of secular parties in the 2019 elections. Karnataka also happens to be the last big state that the Congress is still in power.

For the BJP, a Karnataka victory means all is good with its well-oiled electoral machinery and its performance as a central government. Karnataka is also the only state in the south that the party has been in power and it will fancy its chances of a return.

JDS, the other important player, has seen its influence wane in recent years. These elections will be vital for it staying relevant not just on the state electoral landscape but also as part of the secular coalition that might emerge in 2019.

The Karnataka Assembly has 224 seats, with 173 constituencies reserved for general category, 36 seats for scheduled castes, and 15 seats for scheduled tribes.

In 2013, the Congress wrested power winning 122 seats and dominating the scheduled constituencies. The BJP and JDS, meanwhile, settled for 40 seats each, with the remaining 22 seats split among other parties.

Traditionally, as it happens with several states, caste plays a significant factor in Karnataka elections. To bag the simple majority of 113 seats, every party has push for some deft caste arithmetic.

While the upper castes like the Lingayats and the Vokkaligas account for nearly 30 percent of the voter base, scheduled castes, scheduled tribes and Dalit voters constitute more than 40 percent of the vote.

The other big factor in Karnataka is that over 65 percent of the population lives in rural areas. So it's not surprising that a lot of the pre-election chatter from political parties has centered on addressing the problems these people face.

The agrarian distress is a crucial factor for the rural electorate. “We have had drought for three years in succession, four actually and that has caused hardship again,” said Chandan Gowda, a professor of political science at the Azim Premji University in Bengaluru.

Indeed, a recent survey said water is on top of the mind of Karnataka voters.

“The schemes of the government were intended to help the people in hardship and the elections will give us a good sense of how well have they fared. But as far as the expectation of the rural electorate goes they will want better incomes for what they grow and access to good school and hospitals is what villages have always wanted," said Gowda.

The BJP has named former chief minister BS Yeddyurappa as its candidate for chief minister, but the electoral battle in Karnataka actually between prime minister Narendra Modi, and incumbent chief minister Siddaramaiah. The BJP will hope to continue riding on Modi’s popularity while Siddaramaiah has proved to be a shrewd election campaigner.

Siddaramaiah has proposed to the central government the state Cabinet decision of declaring Lingayats as non-Hindus and recommending minority status to the community. He has also proved quite adept in returning the barbs his opponents throw at him.

The demand to recognize the Lingayat faith as a religion is an old one. What the Government has done is a recognition of a fact acknowledged as far back as the Mysore Census of 1871.

Those in BJP accusing us of dividing religion better listen to the Lingayat-Veershiva community— Siddaramaiah (@siddaramaiah) March 20, 2018

Expect more such attacks in the coming days.

Amid the intense war of words between the Congress and BJP leaders, JD(S) could emerge as a dark horse in several constituencies, according to political pundits.

Against this backdrop, predicting a winner will not be easy.

First Published:Apr 16, 2018 4:07 PM IST