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Australia's post-election cheer may prove short-lived
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Australia's post-election cheer may prove short-lived
Sep 17, 2013 12:32 AM

Market euphoria has driven Australian shares to fresh multi-year highs but some analysts are warning that the factors that weighed on equities earlier this year haven`t really gone away.

Post-election cheer has seen Australian stocks rally 1.7 percent since the federal elections were called on September 9, while the Australian dollar has risen 1.6 percent.

News that Larry Summers dropped his bid to succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman added fuel to the fire, sending Australian shares to their highest level on Monday since May 2008.

But some analysts warn that the recent positivity could be premature.

"Yes Australia`s currency and its stock market have had a good time...

Sentiment surrounding the Australian economy has turned markedly bearish this year amid speculation of a peak in the country`s mining sector, slowing demand from major trading partner China and ongoing political uncertainty.

However, more positive economic data out of China in recent weeks coupled with the euphoria of a new Liberal National coalition government have started to fuel hopes that the economy could be getting back on track, leading to gains for the domestic stock market.

But OCBC's Menon, who remains unconvinced about the stabilization of China's economy, thinks Australia is on course for more pain.

"Despite the recent

"The new government appears intent on ensuring greater social equality, that corruption is weeded out, and that the banking system is strengthened. I think that means slowing growth for China in the coming quarters and a slower China might not be the best piece of news for Australia," he added.

Other analysts were also concerned that investors might be underestimating the extent of China`s slowdown.

Rob Aspin, head of equity investment strategy at Standard Chartered advised investors to trim their positions in the Aussie dollar as a result.

"China will be marginally weaker than the market expects and that will obviously impact the Aussie dollar," he said.

However, Alistair Chan, economist at Moody`s Analytics, said he believed China`s economy to be recovering. He expects China`s gross domestic product growth to exceed the government`s 7.5 percent target this year.

"Regarding China I think the business cycle is turning up. The commodity cycle, as defined by both import volumes and prices, also appears to have troughed. Whether this leads to higher profits for Australian companies and hence higher stock prices is hard to tell," he said.

But Chan said it was important to note that Australia`s economy and stock market were not completely reliant on growth in China alone.

"The biggest drivers of the

Australian stocks traded around 0.1 percent higher in Asia trading on Tuesday.

-By CNBC`s Katie Holliday: Follow her on Twitter @hollidaykatie

Copyright 2011 cnbc.com

First Published:Sept 17, 2013 9:32 AM IST

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