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Wall St Week Ahead-Wobbly US stocks face test with tariffs, jobs data
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Wall St Week Ahead-Wobbly US stocks face test with tariffs, jobs data
Mar 30, 2025 6:26 AM

NEW YORK, March 28 (Reuters) - A rocky U.S. stock market

will be tested in the coming week by a pivotal deadline for

President Donald Trump's tariff plans and an employment report

that could reveal a slowing economy.

The S&P 500 posted a weekly loss, selling off on

Friday after data pointed to underlying price pressures. Earlier

this month, the benchmark index marked a correction, dropping

more than 10% from its record high.

The index is down 9.17% from its February 19 high as

uncertainty over the health of the U.S. economy and trade policy

has kept investors on edge.

Investors remain worried about signs that Trump's trade war

could reignite inflation.

"April is going to have a lot of moving parts and probably a

lot of volatility following a really difficult March," said Eric

Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment

Management Corp. "There's a lot of information that could move

markets in a variety of different directions."

Investors have been hoping the coming days will clarify the

tariff landscape. Trump has pointed to April 2 for a broad batch

of tariffs to be announced, including "reciprocal" levies on

countries, calling it a "Liberation Day" for the U.S. economy.

The tariff situation has led Wall Street analysts to pull

back on economic and corporate earnings forecasts, while

uncertainty over how trade policy will play out is weighing on

businesses and consumers.

A survey this week showed U.S. consumer confidence plunged

in March to its lowest in more than four years, with households

fearing a recession and higher inflation because of tariffs.

"Everybody wants clarity because however it plays out, it

gives the roadmap and we're going to adapt, adjust," said Jack

McIntyre, portfolio manager for Brandywine Global. "It's this

cloud of uncertainty that's creating some angst."

On Wednesday, Trump announced a 25% tariff on auto imports,

a measure that could add thousands of dollars to the average

cost of a vehicle in the U.S. Shares in carmakers such as

General Motors ( GM ) and Ford tumbled on Thursday.

Data from options analytics service ORATS show the equity

options market pricing higher volatility for near-term S&P 500

option expirations, including contracts expiring on March 31 and

April 4, compared to those further out.

"Traders are paying a premium for near-term protection,"

Matt Amberson, principal at ORATS, said.

After annual gains of over 20% for years, the S&P 500 is

logging a 5.12% decline so far in 2025 as the end of the first

quarter nears. The index has lost its gains since Trump's

November election, which had stoked excitement on Wall Street

about the president's expected pro-growth agenda that has been

deflated by worries over tariffs.

The forward price-to-earnings ratio on the S&P 500 has

moderated to less than 21 times as of Wednesday, compared to

about 22 to start the year, but remains well above its long-term

average of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream.

"We came into the year with an expensive market coupled with

high expectations. And now we're getting uncertainty," said Jack

Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital. "Those ...

don't work very well together."

Tariff worries have compounded concerns about the U.S.

economic outlook. Investors will focus on the monthly U.S. jobs

report due on April 4.

Employment growth is expected to have slowed in March to

128,000 from 151,000 in February, according to a Reuters poll.

One focus on Wall Street is how much light the jobs data

will shed on an effort led by Trump ally Elon Musk to reduce the

federal government workforce.

The end of the first quarter on Monday could bring asset

price fluctuations, as portfolio managers make last-minute

adjustments. Investors also will begin eyeing the start of

first-quarter earnings season, with reports arriving in earnest

later in the month.

"We're generally in a risk off environment. That's been the

tone since we've entered this correction phase," said Charlie

Ripley, senior investment strategist for Allianz Investment

Management. "So it remains to be seen whether we've seen the

bottom."

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