NEW YORK, Feb 14 (Reuters) - Walmart's ( WMT ) quarterly report
in the coming week will give investors fresh insight into the
health of U.S. consumers, who are facing stronger inflation and
uncertainty over whether President Donald Trump's tariffs will
push up prices.
The benchmark S&P 500 stock index was up about 1% for
the week, with stocks showing resilience despite a hot report on
consumer prices that led investors to push back expectations of
further interest rate cuts this year.
Wall Street closely watches trends in consumer spending,
which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic
activity. The extent to which inflation is weighing on shopping
behavior could become more evident with Thursday's earnings
report from retailer Walmart ( WMT ).
"Walmart ( WMT ) is sort of a canary in the coal mine as far as
consumer spending and consumer health is concerned," said Robert
Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth.
Walmart's ( WMT ) report could show "how much of higher food prices
and higher gasoline or energy prices is digging into the
discretionary spending of consumers," Pavlik said.
The S&P 500 has climbed more than 3% this year, with broad
gains among sectors. Investors have digested a flurry of policy
announcements from the Trump administration, including on
tariffs and federal government cost cuts, and more recently,
discouraging data on inflation.
Stocks sold off modestly on Wednesday after a report showed
consumer prices in January jumped by the most in nearly 1-1/2
years, with Americans facing higher costs for a range of goods
and services.
The CPI data came on the heels of a survey that revealed
U.S. consumer sentiment sank in February to a seven-month low as
inflation expectations soared. Households feared it may be too
late to avoid the negative effects from Trump's threatened
tariffs, according to the survey's director.
Company executives are grappling with the potential fallout
from tariffs. Since the beginning of the year, nearly 430
companies in the S&P 1500 have either mentioned tariffs or
responded to a question about tariffs on earnings calls or at
investor events, according to LSEG data.
WALMART IN FOCUS
Walmart ( WMT ), as the most important consumer company in the
country along with Amazon ( AMZN ), will be closely watched for
its commentary, said Matt Maley, chief market strategist at
Miller Tabak.
"It's not just what their numbers are and their guidance,
but what they say about the consumer," Maley said.
Walmart's ( WMT ) comments could help address whether people are "so
worried about tariffs that they're starting to question some of
their spending," Maley said.
A Walmart ( WMT ) spokesperson declined to comment, saying the
company was in a quiet period ahead of its earnings report.
Walmart's ( WMT ) report will be followed by results in the next few
weeks from a range of consumer companies, including home
improvement company Home Depot ( HD ), off-price retailer TJX
Cos ( TJX ) and Target ( TGT ), that will also wind down
fourth-quarter reporting season for corporate America.
With nearly three-fourths of index companies having
reported, S&P 500 earnings are on track to have climbed 15.2%
from the year-earlier period, its strongest pace in three years,
according to LSEG IBES data.
Still, expectations for S&P 500 profits in 2025 have
moderated since the start of the year, which some investors said
has undercut optimism from the fourth-quarter reports.
The potential impact from import tariffs - which are
expected to weigh on profits and drive up inflation - is poised
to remain prominent on Wall Street's radar in the coming week.
Trump has announced a 10% tariff on China and a broad duty on
steel and aluminum imports, while delaying tariffs on Mexico and
Canada.
"No one's quite sure what's a negotiation and what's the
policy," said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments.
Hedge funds and other large investors, he said, "don't want to
be caught short only to see a reversal in policy that causes the
market to come right back."