NEW YORK, July 19 (Reuters) - As earnings season goes
into full swing, bullish investors hope solid corporate results
will stem a tumble in technology shares that has cooled this
year's U.S. stock rally.
The S&P 500's technology sector has dropped nearly
6% in just over a week, shedding about $900 billion in market
value as growing expectations of interest rate cuts and a second
Donald Trump presidency draw money away from this year's winners
and into sectors that have languished in 2024.
The S&P 500 has fared somewhat better, losing 1.6% in
just over a week, with declines in tech partly offset by sharp
gains in areas such as financials, industrials and small caps.
The benchmark index is up more than 16% so far this year.
Second-quarter earnings could help tech reclaim the
spotlight. Tesla and Google-parent Alphabet
both report on Tuesday, kicking off results from the
"Magnificent Seven" megacap group of stocks that have propelled
markets since early 2023. Microsoft ( MSFT ) and Apple ( AAPL )
are set to report the following week.
Big tech stocks "have been leading the charge, and it's for
a good reason," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist
at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute. "They're making money,
they're growing earnings, they're owning their niche."
Strong results from the market's leaders could assuage some
of the worries that have recently dogged megacaps, including
concerns over stretched valuations and an advance highlighted by
eye-watering gains in stocks such as Nvidia ( NVDA ), which is
up 145% this year despite a recent dip.
On the other hand, signs that profits are flagging or
artificial intelligence-related spending is less than
anticipated would test the narrative of tech dominance that has
boosted stocks this year. That could turn quickly into a problem
for broader markets: Alphabet, Tesla, Amazon.com ( AMZN ),
Microsoft ( MSFT ), Meta Platforms ( META ), Apple ( AAPL ) and Nvidia ( NVDA ) have
accounted for around 60% of the S&P 500's gain this year.
Corporate results for the market's leaders are expected to
meet a high bar. The tech sector is projected to increase
year-over-year earnings by 17%, and earnings for the
communication services sector -- which includes
Alphabet and Facebook parent Meta -- is seen rising about 22%.
Such gains would outpace the 11% estimated rise for the S&P 500
overall, according to LSEG IBES.
Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise
Financial, believes many investors were caught off guard by an
inflation report earlier this month that all-but-cemented
expectations of a September rate cut by the Fed, sparking a
rotation into areas of the market that have struggled under
tighter monetary policy.
The move out of tech accelerated this week, after a failed
assassination attempt on Trump over the weekend appeared to
boost his standing in the presidential race.
In addition, semiconductor shares were hit hard after a
report earlier this week said the United States was mulling
tighter curbs on exports of advanced semiconductor technology to
China. The Philadelphia SE semiconductor index has
tumbled about 8% since last week.
"What we're advising investors to do is use some of the
pullbacks in these areas as an opportunity to allocate on a
longer-term basis," said Saglimbene, who believes the upcoming
earnings reports could ease the selling pressure on Big Tech.
To be sure, the widening of gains to other parts of the
market has heartened some investors over the durability over the
rally in stocks this year.
During the recent rotation, the number of stocks gaining
compared to those declining over five days reached its highest
rate since November, according to Ned Davis Research.
Historically, when gainers outnumber decliners by at least
2.5 times, as has been the case in this recent five-day period,
the S&P 500 has rallied an average of 4.5% over the next three
months, according to NDR.
"The risk is that mega-caps pull the popular averages lower,
but history suggests that strong breadth improvements have been
bullish for stocks moving forward," Ned Davis strategists said
in a report on Wednesday.