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Wall St Week Ahead-Fed on tap for tariff-jolted market as investors look for calm
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Wall St Week Ahead-Fed on tap for tariff-jolted market as investors look for calm
Mar 16, 2025 6:34 AM

NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. stock market

rocked by President Donald Trump's back-and-forth on foreign

import tariffs faces a Federal Reserve meeting in the coming

week, as investors look for hints about further interest rate

cuts that could restore some calm to markets.

A weeks-long slide in stocks accelerated in recent days

with the benchmark S&P 500 on Thursday confirming it was

in a correction, ending down over 10% from its February 19

record high. While stocks ended the week on a positive note,

with the S&P 500 rebounding sharply on Friday, the decline had

wiped off more than $4 trillion in market value, with some of

Wall Street's highest fliers such as Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Tesla

getting pummeled.

The Fed's latest monetary policy meeting comes as Wall

Street is increasingly worried about an economic slowdown, with

concerns exacerbated by Trump ramping up his tariff war.

The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold interest

rates steady on Wednesday, but investors are anticipating cuts

later in the year and will be looking for signs the Fed may be

preparing to move.

"The stock market is trying to get any type of insight as to

when the Fed will be comfortable enough to implement their next

rate cut," said Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist

at Morningstar Wealth. "I don't think the onslaught of headlines

and new policies coming from the White House is going to stop

anytime soon."

Prospects for rate cuts won a boost this week with tame

consumer price data that brought some relief about inflation.

The pace of inflation has cooled since 2022 when the Fed started

its rate-hiking cycle, and while it remains above the central

bank's 2% annual target, recent disappointing economic data

could start to take more prominence.

"The first step that the stock market would like to see from

(the Fed) is them signaling that focus is shifting back to

supporting economic activity away from the inflation fight,"

Pappalardo said.

Investors over the past month have increased bets on more

easing this year, with fed funds futures indicating nearly three

quarter-point cuts expected through 2025, compared to the

current rate of 4.25%-4.5%, according to LSEG data.

Crucial will be comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his

press conference after the monetary policy decision is

announced.

"The market has repriced the Fed" over the last few

weeks, said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood

Capital. "If he pushes back hard against that re-pricing that

we've had in the futures market, then that could be

problematic."

In the meantime, some prominent strategists have become more

downbeat on the outlook for the economy and for U.S. stocks.

Goldman Sachs dropped its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500

to 6,200 from 6,500, while Yardeni Research lowered its

"best-case" target for the index to 6,400 from 7,000. The S&P

500 ended on Friday at 5,638.94.

Volatility has been rising with the Cboe Volatility index

this week hitting its highest level since August before

receding somewhat.

Tariff news is still likely to be at the forefront for

markets in the coming week, with analysts saying the levies

could bite into corporate profits and drive up consumer prices.

In the latest salvo, Trump on Thursday threatened a 200%

tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products from Europe. A

day earlier, the European Commission said it will impose counter

tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to

blanket U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.

While the Fed has been the "centerpiece" for markets in

recent years, other policy dynamics are likely to drive markets

in the next couple of months, said Nathan Thooft, chief

investment officer for equity and multi-asset solutions at

Manulife Investment Management.

"The bigger story is still going to likely be the back and

forth that we continue to see on the tariff front," Thooft said.

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