NEW YORK, March 14 (Reuters) - A U.S. stock market
rocked by President Donald Trump's back-and-forth on foreign
import tariffs faces a Federal Reserve meeting in the coming
week, as investors look for hints about further interest rate
cuts that could restore some calm to markets.
A weeks-long slide in stocks accelerated in recent days
with the benchmark S&P 500 on Thursday confirming it was
in a correction, ending down over 10% from its February 19
record high. While stocks ended the week on a positive note,
with the S&P 500 rebounding sharply on Friday, the decline had
wiped off more than $4 trillion in market value, with some of
Wall Street's highest fliers such as Nvidia ( NVDA ) and Tesla
getting pummeled.
The Fed's latest monetary policy meeting comes as Wall
Street is increasingly worried about an economic slowdown, with
concerns exacerbated by Trump ramping up his tariff war.
The U.S. central bank is widely expected to hold interest
rates steady on Wednesday, but investors are anticipating cuts
later in the year and will be looking for signs the Fed may be
preparing to move.
"The stock market is trying to get any type of insight as to
when the Fed will be comfortable enough to implement their next
rate cut," said Dominic Pappalardo, chief multi-asset strategist
at Morningstar Wealth. "I don't think the onslaught of headlines
and new policies coming from the White House is going to stop
anytime soon."
Prospects for rate cuts won a boost this week with tame
consumer price data that brought some relief about inflation.
The pace of inflation has cooled since 2022 when the Fed started
its rate-hiking cycle, and while it remains above the central
bank's 2% annual target, recent disappointing economic data
could start to take more prominence.
"The first step that the stock market would like to see from
(the Fed) is them signaling that focus is shifting back to
supporting economic activity away from the inflation fight,"
Pappalardo said.
Investors over the past month have increased bets on more
easing this year, with fed funds futures indicating nearly three
quarter-point cuts expected through 2025, compared to the
current rate of 4.25%-4.5%, according to LSEG data.
Crucial will be comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his
press conference after the monetary policy decision is
announced.
"The market has repriced the Fed" over the last few
weeks, said Walter Todd, chief investment officer at Greenwood
Capital. "If he pushes back hard against that re-pricing that
we've had in the futures market, then that could be
problematic."
In the meantime, some prominent strategists have become more
downbeat on the outlook for the economy and for U.S. stocks.
Goldman Sachs dropped its 2025 year-end target for the S&P 500
to 6,200 from 6,500, while Yardeni Research lowered its
"best-case" target for the index to 6,400 from 7,000. The S&P
500 ended on Friday at 5,638.94.
Volatility has been rising with the Cboe Volatility index
this week hitting its highest level since August before
receding somewhat.
Tariff news is still likely to be at the forefront for
markets in the coming week, with analysts saying the levies
could bite into corporate profits and drive up consumer prices.
In the latest salvo, Trump on Thursday threatened a 200%
tariff on all wines and other alcoholic products from Europe. A
day earlier, the European Commission said it will impose counter
tariffs on $28 billion worth of U.S. goods in response to
blanket U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
While the Fed has been the "centerpiece" for markets in
recent years, other policy dynamics are likely to drive markets
in the next couple of months, said Nathan Thooft, chief
investment officer for equity and multi-asset solutions at
Manulife Investment Management.
"The bigger story is still going to likely be the back and
forth that we continue to see on the tariff front," Thooft said.