06:51 AM EDT, 07/15/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity investors will tune into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments, parsing his take on last week's inflation print that pushed the probability of an interest-rate cut in September to 92%.

* Quarterly earnings will also be high on investors' agenda, with the likes of Netflix (NFLX) and mega-cap banks such as Goldman Sachs (GS) and Bank of America (BAC) reporting. Market participants will watch out for ASML (ASML) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company's (TSM) results to gauge the state of the artificial intelligence trade.

* Last week, the three mainstream US indexes closed higher as gains in sectors set to benefit from a Fed rate cut, following a third straight month of easing in annual consumer price inflation, made up for weakening in technology's narrow market leadership. Treasury yields slid after the CPI showed disinflation underway in areas that influence the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. According to the FedWatch Tool early Monday, the probability of the September rate cut at 92% compared with 71% a week ago.

* On Monday, Powell's comments at the Economic Club of Washington could be critical as the Federal Open Market Committee will go into a communications blackout on July 20 before their July 31 decision, a Scotiabank note said Friday.

* "It would certainly be more impactful and aggressive if Powell were to also say that the July meeting will be a so-called 'live' one," the Scotiabank said. If Powell said recent inflation figures give greater confidence that the Fed is on track, it reinforces pricing for a cut in September and "perhaps add to the 50-75bps of cuts that are priced for this year."

* Two more rounds of CPI, PCE reports (including one in July), and nonfarm payrolls are due before the Fed's September meeting.

* US retail sales for June due Tuesday will also show the impact of inflation on demand.