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US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week as Surging Treasury Yields Offset Risk Sentiment From Earnings
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US Equity Indexes Mixed This Week as Surging Treasury Yields Offset Risk Sentiment From Earnings
Oct 27, 2024 4:41 AM

05:02 PM EDT, 10/25/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US equity indexes were mixed this week amid concern that the fiscally expansionary policies of presidential election candidates would likely force the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates higher for longer, outweighing the impact of quarterly earnings.

* The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended at 42,114.40 on Friday, compared with 43,275.91 a week ago. The S&P 500 read was 5,808.12 end-of-play, compared with 5,864.67 a week earlier.

* The Nasdaq Composite closed at 18,518.61 versus 18,489.55 a week prior. Nasdaq closed at a new record following Tesla's (TSLA) quarterly results and ahead of earnings from Apple ( AAPL ) , Microsoft ( MSFT ) , Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Amazon.com ( AMZN ) , and Meta Platforms ( META ) next week.

* The two-year Treasury yield rose to 4.11% late Friday from 3.6% when the Fed cut rates in September saying it is focused more on the labor market than inflation. The 10-year yield jumped to 4.24% from 3.69% as bond vigilantes weighed the policy proposals from Democrats and Republicans.

* "Ongoing labor market softening suggests monetary policy is restrictive at current levels [of 4.75% to 5%] and a Republican clean sweep in the US elections - resulting in greater inflationary pressures - would simply push rate cuts further into the future rather than halting them altogether," Oxford Economics said. Gold at $2,755.21 an ounce is up 27% year to date.

* The probability of the target rate in the 4% to 4.25% range by March is 44%, the highest among all rate likelihoods, as per the FedWatch Tool. By July, the highest probability is for rates to be 3.5% to 3.75%. "The market has removed all but five rate cuts from SOFR pricing, with almost zero cuts priced beyond July 2025," Oxford Economics said.

* The US Dollar index at 104.30 traded close to its highest since early August. The dollar is underpinned by expectations for fewer rate cuts and growing bets of a possible return of Donald Trump as president, a D.A. Davidson note said.

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