04:19 PM EDT, 03/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange rose for a second session on Monday, as investors set aside near-term fears around a brewing trade war with the United States for now and are taking a positive long-term view on moves being made to grow Canada's own economy.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 231.71 points to close at 24,785.11. Among sectors, the biggest gainers were Energy, up 1.51%, and Base Metal, which rose 1.56%.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) on Monday forecast that U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff hikes will hit growth across North America, including Canada, Mexico and the U.S. itself, while driving up inflation. The OECD cut its global economic outlook and warned that a broader trade war would hurt growth even more. The OECD forecast Canadian economic growth at 0.7% in 2025 and 2026, down from 1.5% in 2024. But in Canada, moves are already being made, or are expected to be made, on a federal and a provincial level to attract outside investment to and safeguard growth amid a volatile time.

Mark Carney, new leader of Canada's governing Liberal Party and sworn in as Prime Minister on Friday, is already on his first foreign trip, with a visit to United Kingdom and France. Carney, formerly a Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor, is looking to tap in to his connections and build stronger economic and trade relations with Europe, which may eventually lead to Canada being less reliant on the United States, its largest trading partner.

Reflecting the market mood, The Wall Street Journal on Monday noted a prominent Canadian polling organization has the Carney-led Liberal Party leading the opposition Conservatives for the first time in about three years. Polling from Angus Reid also indicated that 41% of Canadians believe former central banker Carney is best suited to be PM at this moment, compared with 29% favoring Tory leader Pierre Poilievre. The WSJ noted Carney is widely expected to call an election before Canadian parliament resumes in a week.

Meanwhile, at National Bank Managing Director Warren Lovely is re-thinking provincial funding expectations, and he expects provinces to "lean into" international funding markets.

"Geopolitically, economically and fiscally, here in Canada things are clearly unsettled," Lovely said. But despite "immense (arguably unprecedented) uncertainty", he noted provincial governments are in the process of tabling their 2025 budgets. At this point, he noted, only three of 10 provinces had presented budgets. Four more are set to arrive by March 25. "Regardless," Lovely added, "some trends are easy enough to spot....like weaker budget balances and nontrivial borrowing needs."

Lovely said: "Based on the available information in hand and our perceived balance of risks, we've revised up our thinking for calendar year provincial issuance. We now see roughly C$150 billion in gross supply for calendar 2025 -- matching if not exceeding the annual record first set in 2020 and recently re-established in 2024."

"We will revise/fine-tune our thinking as more provincial budgets arrive but provinces can be expected to lean into international funding markets. We foresee roughly one-third of total supply being sourced from international markets, with foreign currency issuance getting off to a very brisk start in 2025. Another traditional/seasonal funding window is poised to open shortly, with markets having seemingly positioned for a busy (if volatile) spring."

Among commodities today, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed with a gain after the U.S. launched attacks on Yemen's Iran-backed Houthi militants, a response to the group's attacks on Israel and Red Sea shipping, while China said it plans moves to boost consumer spending. WTI oil for April delivery closed up $0.40 to settle at US$67.58 per barrel, while May Brent crude was last seen up $0.53 to US$71.11.

Gold prices traded above US$3,000 for a second-straight session late afternoon on Monday as the dollar dipped, on continuing safe-haven buying. Gold for April delivery was last seen up $7.20 to US$3,008.30 per ounce, rising off Friday's record close of US$3,001.10.