04:26 PM EDT, 04/04/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange entered correction territory on Friday as stock pickers and market watchers across North America start to count the cost of a global trade war started by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Today, the S&P/TSX Composite Index again wasn't helped either by deflated commodity prices as it plunged 1,142.3 points. or 4.7%, to 23,193.47. This added to the near 970 points, or 3.8%, lost Thursday, and means the TSX has dropped 10% from a record close above 25,800 on January 30.
Among sectors, all sectors were lower, led by Base Metals and Battery Metals, both of which were down more than 9%, and Energy down 8.7%. On the wider market only 276 issues rose on the day, with 1,881 closing lower and 75 closing unchanged.
Still, the TSX performed better than its U.S. counterparts, all of which closed Friday with larger percentage drops than the Canadian Exchange. The TSX is still up 5.9% over the past year, while the Nasdaq Composite Index is down 1.9% over 12 months, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index, now the best-performing U.S index, is up 0.88% over the period.
Stocks that did rise out of the carnage included Roger Communications (RCI-B.TO), which rose 1.1% after concluding a definitive agreement with funds managed by Blackstone, backed by leading Canadian institutional investors, for a $7-billion equity investment. TFI International ( TFII ) was up near 6% although there didn't appear to any fresh news from or on it.
On the cost of the tariffs war to Canada, Desjardins on Friday published a note entitled 'Tit for Tat: What Do Retaliatory Tariffs Mean for Canadian Imports, Growth and Inflation?'. It said due to the size of the actual and proposed counter tariffs and the types of imported goods they apply to, inflation in Canada could be about 0.6 percentage points higher over the next year than it would be otherwise. It would be even higher, Desjardins said, if not for the drag on real GDP from the tariffs on both sides of the border. However, it added, it's important to note that Canada would be hard pressed to avoid a recession because of the trade war, even if it decided not to apply retaliatory tariffs.
On the cost to the United States, which was hit today by China with 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products effective April 10. Rosenberg Research said it adjusted its equity portfolio recommendations to reflect the impact of tariffs and other headwinds that face equities there. "U.S. equities are not yet fully pricing in the multiple headwinds facing them. Our "What's Priced In?" model continues to make defensive adjustments against this backdrop, upgrading Consumer Staples to Overweight and downgrading Communication Services to Neutral. In terms of key positions, Utilities remain our most Overweight sector while Consumer Discretionary and Technology are key Underweights," it said.
For its part, Wells Fargo Investment Institute is adjusting 2025 targets and equity sector guidance. It is revising lower its 2025 U.S. GDP growth target and taking higher its consumer price inflation target to account for weak start to the year and aggressive tariff increases. WFII said this change also implies lower global and developed market economic growth, and it has adjusted those forecasts as well.
On equities, WFII said slower economic growth and impaired sentiment combine to lower its forecast for earnings and prices for most all equity asset classes. On real assets, WFII said the slower U.S. economy and is expectation for adequate global oil supply lead it to lower its 2025 year-end crude oil price target range. It lowered its year-end 2025 West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude and Brent crude oil price target ranges by US$20 per barrel each. This reduction brings its WTI crude oil price target range down to $65-75 per barrel, while its Brent crude oil price target range was reduced to $70-80 per barrel.
WFII is also raising its 2025 year-end target range for gold, amid geopolitical uncertainties and stronger demand for perceived safe havens, from US$2,800-2,900 per troy ounce to $3,000-3,200 per troy ounce.
Of commodities today, WTI oil fell to the lowest in more than four years, tumbling for a second day along with wider markets as the fallout from U.S. President Donald Trump's trade wars continues. WTI crude oil for May delivery closed down $4.96 to settle at US$61.99 per barrel, the lowest since April, 2021, while June Brent crude was last seen down $4.48 to US$65.66.
Gold was sharply lower late afternoon on Friday, falling for a second day amid tumbling stock markets. Gold for June delivery was last seen down US$63.90 to US$3,057.80 per ounce, continuing to fall off Tuesday's record high of US$3,166.20.