(Changes headline, updates market activity)
By David Randall
NEW YORK, July 5 (Reuters) - Benchmark 10-year Treasury
yields slid on Friday following closely-watched jobs data that
appeared to show the U.S. labor market weakening, strengthening
market expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin to cut
interest rates in September.
Non-farm payrolls grew by 206,000 jobs in June, slightly
higher than the 190,000 new jobs estimated by economists polled
by Reuters. Estimated job growth for May, meanwhile, was revised
down to 218,000 new jobs from 272,000, while April's job growth
was revised down to 108,000 new jobs from a previous 165,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, slightly higher than the
estimated 4.0%.
The labor market has been a key focus for the Federal
Reserve in its debate over when to begin cutting interest rates
from nearly two-decade highs. The central bank has cited the
resiliency of the jobs market as a potential catalyst for a
possible resurgence in inflation.
"This was not a terrible report but with the large revisions
it shows there are cracks and weaknesses under the surface,"
said David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital
Advisors. "This keeps the (Fed's) September meeting a live
meeting for a rate cut."
Futures markets are now pricing in a roughly 73% chance for
a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's meeting that concludes
September 18th, up from a 57.9% chance seen a week ago,
according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Overall, markets are pricing
in a cumulative 50 basis points in interest rate cuts by the end
of the year.
"The downward revisions to the previous two months is
consistent with an economic slowdown," said Jeffrey Roach, chief
economist for LPL Financial. "We should expect more rhetoric out
of the Fed about labor market conditions and the importance of
keeping policy appropriate for their dual mandate."
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
fell 7.1 basis points to 4.276%, leaving it down
approximately 20 basis points for the week and near its lowest
levels since late June.
The yield on the 30-year bond fell 4.9 basis
points to 4.471%.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations,
fell 8.1 basis points to 4.612%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 33.8 basis points.