NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Tuesday, with the benchmark
10-year yield hitting its lowest in 10 weeks, as investors
sought a refuge in bonds from signs of deceleration in the U.S.
economy and persistent geopolitical uncertainty.
Yields accelerated their fall after the U.S. consumer confidence
index declined to 98.3 in February, the lowest reading since
June. Meanwhile the tech-heavy Nasdaq led Wall Street declines
on Tuesday, hitting a six-week low.
U.S. single-family house prices increased in December, another
blow to affordability alongside elevated mortgage costs, even as
the housing supply increases.
Aside from growing signs of a slowdown, investors worried
about U.S. President Donald Trump's economic policies after he
said proposed tariffs on Mexico and Canada were still set to
start next week.
"We are beginning to see some cracks in the markets
regarding the economic outlook and anxiety about some of the
conflicting policies", said Robert Tipp, head of global bonds at
PGIM Fixed Income.
The bond market as a result is betting on more rate cuts by
the Federal Reserve this year, compared to a few weeks ago. On
Tuesday, U.S. rate futures priced in 61 basis points (bps) of
easing in 2025, compared with 44 bps late on Monday, according
to LSEG calculations.
Futures also showed that markets are expecting the first
rate cut to come in June rather than July. The higher odds for a
second cut also moved to September and October.
In late morning trading, the yield on the U.S. 10-year
Treasury note was down 9.1 bps to 4.304%, after
earlier sliding to the lowest since December 12. The yield on
the 30-year bond declined 8.4 bps to 4.564%.
U.S. two-year yields dropped 7.8 bps to 4.09%, after
earlier dropping to 4.07%, the lowest since November 1.
A sharp drop in business activity reported last week may be
interpreted as an opportunity for interest rate cuts. But
investors are still far from seeing a change in longer-term
trends for the U.S. deficit and debt.
Markets are still skeptical of the real effects on the
deficit of spending cuts by Elon Musk's Department of Government
Efficiency, known as DOGE. A significant deficit reduction "will
require more legislative progress on spending cuts", Tipp said.
Substantive budget changes would require congressional approval.
Later on Tuesday, the U.S. Treasury will sell $70 billion in
five-year notes, a day after a strong two-year note auction on
Monday.