(Updates prices; adds investor comment, graphic, context)
By Davide Barbuscia
NEW YORK, April 11 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
pushed higher on Thursday with two-year yields breaching 5% for
the first time since November, as investors worried over
rebounding inflation despite the release of softer-than-expected
March producer prices data.
Yields, which move inversely to prices, had soared on
Wednesday on the back of hotter-than-anticipated inflation data
that has raised doubt over the Federal Reserve's ability to
lower interest rates this year. The selling pressure continued
on Thursday, though to a smaller extent.
"Typically when you get a big shock like that markets
take about three days to normalize. Day two, we're still
squaring some positions, some late tap-on-the-shoulder sellers
are out there," said Guy LeBas, chief fixed income strategist at
Janney Montgomery Scott.
The producer price index rose 0.2% month-on-month in March,
below an expected 0.3% increase. Meanwhile, the number of
Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell more
than expected last week, suggesting the labor market remained
fairly tight.
Benchmark 10-year yields were last seen at
4.574%, about one basis point above Wednesday's levels. Two-year
yields, which tend to more directly reflect
expectations on monetary policy, briefly breached 5% but
declined later and were last at 4.956%, slightly lower on the
day.
While producer prices for March were welcome news, investors
were still scarred by Wednesday's release of the consumer price
index, which showed inflation remains sticky.
"The big event really was yesterday's CPI," said Michael
Reynolds, vice president of investment strategy at Glenmede.
"September is probably our best guess for a first rate cut,
but that means you have to see inflation get back down ... and
we just haven't seen that yet this year," he said.
After Wednesday's inflation data traders have trimmed their
expectations for rate cuts this year to less than two, below the
three cuts Fed officials had penciled in last month. On
Thursday, fed funds futures were showing expectations of a total
of about 43 basis points of cuts this year.
Several global brokerages have also pushed back their rate
cut expectations, with some seeing a cut only in December.
"PPI ran cool in March, but not by enough to negate the
signal from the first quarter's hot CPI reports," Bill Adams,
chief economist for Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will
likely wait until the third quarter to begin reducing interest
rates," he said.
Fed officials on Thursday said there was
no urgency
to ease, with Boston Fed President Susan Collins saying the
strength of the economy and uneven retreat of inflation argued
against a near term push to lower rates.
The Treasury sold $22 billion in 30-year notes with a high
yield of 4.671%, which was about 1 basis point above the
expected rate at the time of the bid deadline, a sign that
investors demanded a premium to absorb the issuance.
Yields on 30-year bonds at 4.66% added
nearly three basis points on Thursday.