NEW YORK, Sept 12 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields were
roughly unchanged on Thursday after economic data cemented
investor expectations the Federal Reserve will begin a gradual
decrease in interest rates next week.
U.S. producer prices increased slightly more than expected
in August, but the trend remained consistent with subsiding
inflation. On the labor market side, meanwhile, data on Thursday
showed the number of Americans filing new applications for
unemployment benefits increased marginally last week.
The data did not alter investor expectations of a
25-basis-point interest rate cut by the U.S. central bank at its
Sept. 17 to 18 rate-setting meeting. Bets for a bigger,
half-percentage point cut were curbed on Wednesday when consumer
price data showed inflation remains somewhat sticky.
"The initial (jobless) claims were benign as far as any
relationship to movement in bond prices," said Lou Brien, market
strategist at DRW Trading in Chicago.
Traders in rates futures were assigning a 13% chance to a
50-bps cut next week, in line with Wednesday, with the consensus
remaining largely on a 25-bps reduction adjustment, CME Group
data showed.
"The market has been expecting the Fed to move next week and
they're likely to move," said Erik Aarts, senior fixed income
strategist at Touchstone Investments. "Some in the marketplace
thought there could be a larger cut next week; we don't think
so, we're firmly in the camp of getting 25 basis point as the
start of rate cuts," he said.
Bond investors on Thursday were also closely scrutinizing
the European Central Bank, which cut interest rates again as
inflation slows and economic growth falters. The ECB cut its
deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.50%, as expected, following a
similar cut in June.
Later on Thursday, the Treasury will sell $22 billion in
30-year bonds, the last leg of this week's U.S. government bond
supply. A 10-year note auction was well received on Wednesday.
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were last at
3.659%, just slightly higher on the day. Two-year yields
, which tend to more closely reflect expectations of
changes in monetary policy, were last at 3.641%, a touch lower
than on Wednesday.
The curve comparing 10- and 2-year yields,
closely watched by investors for its signals on the economic
outlook, steepened to 1.4 basis points from less than one on
Wednesday.
(Reporting by Davide Barbuscia; Editing by Emelia
Sithole-Matarise)