(Updates at 1020 GMT)
By Harry Robertson and Ankur Banerjee
Aug 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields tumbled on Monday
as traders moved to price in big rate cuts from the Federal
Reserve, after weak jobs data stoked worries that the U.S.
economy could be heading for a recession.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is
sensitive to Fed rate expectations, dropped to 3.691% in
European trading, its lowest since May last year. It was last
down 10 basis points (bps) at 3.77%.
The yield, which moves inversely to the price, plunged 53
bps last week.
Friday's nonfarm payrolls data - which showed the U.S.
unemployment rate unexpectedly rose in July and jobs growth
slowed - followed a slew of disappointing earnings results from
major tech firms, setting off a global stock selloff and driving
investors to safe haven assets.
Investors are also grappling with a dramatic rally in the
Japanese yen which has rocked the country's markets, helping
send the Nikkei 225 stock index down 12.4% on Monday in
its biggest one-day drop since 1987. U.S. S&P 500 futures were
down 2.7%.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note
was down 5 bps at 3.742%, having touched a one-year
low of 3.678% earlier in the session. The yield sank nearly 40
basis points last week, the largest weekly fall since March
2020.
Michael Weidner, co-head of global fixed income at Lazard
Asset Management, said the rally in bond markets was being
amplified by investors worrying about their positions in tech
stocks and by thin summer markets.
"The move over the last two days in particular, that's not
as much driven by fundamentals as it is by the correction in
U.S. equity markets," he said.
"We believe still that a soft landing (for the economy) is
more of a base-case scenario."
Markets are now anticipating around 125 bps of U.S. rate
cuts this year, up from around 90 bps on Friday and 50 bps at
the start of last week.
Traders now think a 50 bp cut in September is a near
certainty, according to derivative market pricing.
The closely watched U.S. 2-year-to-10-year yield curve
narrowed its inversion, to 2 bps, the least since
July 2022, reflecting expectations for a sharp easing of
short-term yields.