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U.S. housing starts fall, Philly Fed index declines
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U.S. yield curve reduced inversion
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U.S. rate futures price in between one to two cuts this
year
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Focus on $21 billion U.S. five-year TIPS auction
(Recasts with market rise; adds analyst comment, Philly Fed
data, more details about reports, bullets, byline; updates
prices)
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, June 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields rose
across the board on Thursday as risk appetite rose with equities
and investors continued to rebalance their positions after last
week's sharp decline on further evidence the world's largest
economy is finally slowing down.
Investors are also looking ahead to next week's auction
of about $183 billion in U.S. two-, five- and seven-year
Treasury notes. Investors tend to sell Treasuries ahead of
auctions to push up the yield before buying them back at a lower
price, a practice called concession.
U.S. yields briefly came off their highs after
Thursday's generally
soft economic reports
with the contraction in housing starts, a decline in the
Philadelphia Federal Reserve business conditions index, and an
increase in continuing jobless claims.
"Overall the market is trying to find its way," said Jim
Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn,
Pennsylvania.
"I wouldn't say that the fixed income market moved
notably on the economic data this morning. It was just taking a
breather more or less from the downward movement we have seen
recently."
In late morning trading, the benchmark U.S. 10-year
yield rose 6 basis points (bps) to 4.276%.
The U.S. 30-year yield gained 5.9 bps at 4.412%
.
The two-year yield declined 5 bps to 4.743%.
U.S. yields also rose after the S&P 500 hit yet
another record peak.
"The S&P hitting record highs could be a contributing
factor to the rise in yields," said Barnes.
"At the margin, you had a little bit of a sell-off in
the Treasury market and you probably could have had some
repositioning as the equity market has not only been able to
hold its gains, but was able to add to them this year."
The U.S. yield curve became less inverted. The inversion
between U.S. two- and 10-year yields, which is typically a
precursor to recession, was at minus 46.9 bps,
compared with minus 49.3 bps late on Tuesday.
The curve is in a "bear steepener" phase, in which
long-term rates are rising more steeply than shorter-dated ones.
This often happens when the market thinks inflation could pick
up, delaying the start of the Fed's easing cycle.
Following Thursday's economic data, fed funds futures
slightly pared the chances of easing in September to 64%, from
about 67% late on Tuesday, according to LSEG's calculations. The
market is also pricing one to two rate cuts of 25 bps each this
year.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said on Thursday
it would
take a year or two
to get inflation back to 2% as wage growth might still be a
bit too high, fueling concerns interest rates could remain
elevated for some time.
Later on Thursday, the U.S. government will sell $21
billion of five-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities
(TIPS). U.S. five-year TIPS yields have declined more than 20
basis points since hitting one-month peaks in late May. The
yield was last up 3.6 bps at 2.096%.