(Updated at 3:37 p.m. ET/1937 GMT)
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, June 12 (Reuters) -
U.S. Treasury yields dropped on Wednesday after an inflation
reading came in cooler than expected, raising hopes the Federal
Reserve would begin cutting interest rates in coming months that
were only partly dampened by new Fed projections that pointed to
some caution.
U.S. consumer prices were unchanged in May, according to the
Labor Department's consumer price index (CPI), following a 0.3%
increase in April and below the 0.1% increase forecast by
economists polled by Reuters.
In the 12 months through May, the CPI advanced 3.3% after
increasing 3.4% in April and slightly below the 3.4% forecast.
"The headline number was flat, but that had a lot of
uncertainty around it. The core number, which is more signal
than noise, was below the consensus," said Brian Jacobsen, chief
economist at Annex Wealth Management in Menomonee Falls,
Wisconsin.
"After three months of veering off-track, the
disinflation bus is back on the road to 2%."
Yields pared some declines after the Fed as expected held
interest rates steady but pushed out the start of rate cuts to
perhaps as late as December, with officials projecting only a
single quarter-percentage-point reduction for the year, climbing
further during comments from Chair Jerome Powell following the
announcement.
"At worst, it's just delayed, at best, we get more
prints like the CPI this morning and the Fed not only does one,
but they could still do two, this is far from any commitment,
the Fed continues to watch the data," said Stephen Gallagher,
chief U.S. economist at Societe Generale in New York.
"This is a matter of just pulling forward, pushing back, by
a matter of months."
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note
was down 8 basis points, at 4.322% after hitting
4.25%, its lowest level since April 1.
Market expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in September
eased somewhat after the Fed statement, with a 63.5% chance for
a rate cut of at least 25 basis points being priced in,
according to CME's FedWatch Tool, after rising to roughly 70% in
the wake of the inflation data.
The yield on the 30-year bond shed 5.8 basis
points to 4.477%.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve
measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury
notes, seen as an indicator of economic
expectations, was at a negative 43.8 basis points.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically
moves in step with interest rate expectations, fell 7.6 basis
points and was poised for its biggest daily drop since May 15,
to 4.758%, after falling to 4.67%, its lowest since April 5.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury
Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at
2.188% after closing at 2.265% on June 11.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at
2.23%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4%
a year for the next decade.