NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields
slipped on Thursday after hitting multi-month highs the previous
session, as labor market data showed some weakness, which
supported expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut
interest rates multiple times this year.
Bond investors also balanced their positions ahead Friday's
nonfarm payrolls report for March, which will be a major factor
in gauging the timing of the first easing in 2024 and the number
of those cuts.
On Wednesday, the five-year, seven-year
, 10-year, 20-year, and
30-year yields hit their highest since late
November.
"There's a little bit of fatigue on the move higher and not
really willing to put on new positions ahead of payrolls
tomorrow," said Zachary Griffiths, senior investment grade
strategist at CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.
"It seems like the path of least resistance ... is toward
higher yields and a policy rate that stays higher for longer,"
Griffiths added.
Thursday's data also contributed to the downdraft in yields.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 9,000 to
a seasonally adjusted 221,000 for the week ended March 30, data
on Thursday showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast
214,000 claims in the latest week.
At the same time, U.S. layoff announcements rose 7% in March
to the highest since January 2023, led by technology and
government-sector job eliminations, outplacement firm
Challenger, Gray & Christmas said.
"We have been expecting labor market weakness to emerge in
response to a pullback among consumers," Tom Simons, U.S.
economist at Jefferies, wrote in a research note.
"Although there is a lot of anecdotal evidence of strain in
the household sector, it is clear that this strain is mostly
rooted in the lower end of the income spectrum, which does not
contribute as much to aggregate consumer spending as the upper
end," Simons added.
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield was
down 2 basis points (bps) at 4.335%.
U.S. 30-year yields dipped 2.3 bps to 4.485%.
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield was
little changed at 4.682%.
Following Thursday's data, the U.S. rate futures market has
priced in a 63% chance of a rate cut in June, up slightly from
62.3% late on Wednesday and 60.4% a week ago, the CME's FedWatch
tool showed.
The market has also pared back the number of rate cuts to
under three this year, from between three and four a few weeks
ago, according to LSEG's rate probability app.
The yield curve, meanwhile, flattened, or deepened its
inversion from late on Wednesday. The spread between U.S. two-
and 10-year notes was at minus 34.6 bps, compared
with Wednesday's minus 32.7 bps, in what has been described as a
bull flattener.
In a bull flattener, rates on the long end are falling more
sharply than those on the front end, suggesting lower inflation
expectations, analysts said. This often precedes the start of
the Fed's rate-cutting cycle.