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10-year yields head for biggest weekly increase since 2001
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30-year yields set for biggest weekly gain since 1982
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Traders remain cautious after volatile week
(Updated in New York afternoon time)
By Karen Brettell
April 11 (Reuters) - Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury
yields were on track for their biggest weekly increase in more
than two decades on Friday as U.S. President Donald Trump's
erratic approach to tariffs prompted global market dislocations
and forced selling.
Hedge funds and other asset managers offloaded bonds this
week after getting margin calls and posting sharp losses from
market volatility, analysts said.
Leveraged investors in particular have been hurt by market
whipsaws after Trump last week announced bigger-than-expected
tariffs on trading partners, but then offered a 90-day pause for
most countries on Wednesday.
Rumors of selling, or lack of buying, by foreign investors
are adding to concerns over the market.
Lawrence Gillum, chief fixed income strategist for LPL
Financial, called it a "perfect storm," with concerns about
sticky inflation also part of the move.
"When you start to have investors from retail to
institutional to sovereign wealth funds potentially selling
bonds just because of the elevated volatility, you know it's one
bad story after the other in the fixed income market," he said.
Trump cited volatile moves in markets, including bonds, as a
factor behind his about face on Wednesday, saying that people
were "getting yippy."
CME Group has also raised its margin requirements on
interest rate futures, which "feeds into the market being
concerned about the basis trade," said Molly Brooks, U.S. rates
strategist at TD Securities.
The unwind of basis trades, a popular strategy where
investors seek to profit from the difference between cash
Treasuries and futures prices, has been cited as a large factor
behind this week's volatility.
The 10-year note yield was last up 10.3 basis
points on the day at 4.495% and reached 4.592%, the highest
since February 13. It is on track for the largest weekly
increase since 2001.
Thirty-year bond yields rose 3.1 basis points to
4.880%. The yields reached 5.023% on Wednesday, the highest
since November 2023. They are heading for the largest weekly
increase since 1982.
Longer-dated debt has taken the brunt of this week's selloff
on concerns over the long-term U.S. fiscal outlook. Falling bond
prices lift bond yields.
The prospect of a retreat by foreign investors as a
result of Trump's policies is raising concerns about who would
replace them as buyers of U.S. debt.
"There's a question of who comes in and are we able to
stopgap it if there's a potential decrease in demand," said
Brooks.
Some analysts are also concerned that Trump's policies
will erode the role of the U.S. dollar as a reserve currency,
and U.S. debt as a safe haven investment.
Short-term yields have held at relatively lower levels
than longer-dated debt as traders bet that the Federal Reserve
may cut interest rates sooner if tariffs slow the economy.
The interest-rate sensitive two-year yield rose
9.4 basis points to 3.941%. The yields reached 4.039% on
Wednesday, the highest since March 27, and are on track for the
biggest weekly gain since September.
The yield curve between two- and 10-year note yields
was little changed at 56 points after reaching 74
basis points on Wednesday, the steepest since January 2022. The
curve is on track for its largest weekly steepening move since
October 2023.
Strong auctions of 10-year and 30-year debt on Wednesday and
Thursday helped stabilize the market somewhat, but many
investors remain wary of buying bonds until there is further
improvement in liquidity.
"U.S. Treasuries are still considered liquid relative to
other asset classes but overall liquidity this week has been on
the poorer side as risk appetites of both buyers and sellers
have been curbed," said Phyllis Sim, a U.S. rates trader at
financial services firm StoneX.
Analysts say that further deterioration in bond liquidity
could prompt the Federal Reserve to step in to improve market
functioning.
The Fed should intervene in markets only reluctantly and in
a true emergency, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said
on Friday in the most explicit comments yet from a Fed official
about responding to the market volatility.
Yields dipped only briefly after data on Friday showed that
U.S. monthly producer prices unexpectedly fell in March amid a
sharp decline in the cost of energy products, with tariffs on
imports expected to drive inflation higher in the coming months.
A separate report showed that U.S. consumer sentiment
deteriorated sharply in April and 12-month inflation
expectations surged to the highest level since 1981 amid unease
over escalating trade tensions.