The 10-year Treasury just notched its best week since August, as a market flight to safety sent yields tumbling below 4%.

Investors rushing out of risk assets have piled into government bonds, pushing Treasury prices higher and handing the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF a solid boost.

A Bullish Run With Caution Signs

Chart created using Benzinga Pro

TLT is riding the wave, up 6.53% year-to-date and 2.03% in the past month. Technically, it’s looking strong — trading above its five-, 20- and 50-day exponential moving averages, flashing bullish signals. Its eight-day, 20-day, 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages all confirm bullish momentum.

But, the RSI (relative strength index) at 67.88, nearly overbought, flags a potential sell-off risk ahead.

Read Also: Treasury Bonds Have Lost 50% In 5 Years, Yet Reversal Signals Emerge In Q1: Could Tariffs Actually Push TLT Higher?

Why Treasuries Are Hot Again

Trump's latest round of tariffs has jolted markets, sending stocks and the dollar reeling. “U.S. Treasury yields have been falling sharply as investors rotate out of risk assets into safe havens,” notes Nicolas Trindade of AXA Investment Managers, reported the Financial Times. The shift marks a return to a traditional risk-off trade, where bond demand surges when stocks struggle.

Fraser Lundie of Aviva Investors sees this as a welcome reset, saying, “The return of a negative correlation between bonds and risk assets is a sign traditional relationships are reasserting themselves.” That's a major shift from 2022, when both bonds and stocks crashed in tandem.

TLT: A Trend To Watch

With Treasuries rallying and TLT gaining ground, the momentum is clear. But with selling pressure building and economic uncertainty swirling, investors should keep a close eye on technical levels.

If bond yields reverse, TLT could find itself in a turbulence zone just as fast as it took off.

For now, though, bond bulls are enjoying the ride.

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