NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) - Shares of U.S. refiners
fell to two-year lows on Friday in the wake of U.S. President
Trump's announcement of new tariffs, as fears of slower oil and
fuel demand and weakening refining margins rattled investors.
Top refiners Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ), Valero Energy ( VLO )
and Phillips 66 have shed more than $20 billion
in market capitalization since Trump announced sweeping new
tariffs on Wednesday afternoon, based on LSEG data.
"We consider the adoption of the 'reconciliatory tariffs'
will result in weaker global GDP growth and so lower oil demand
growth, oil prices and weaker refining margins, as exemplified
by the futures markets over recent days," Alan Gelder, vice
president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at Wood
Mackenzie.
Crude oil futures were at their lowest in four years and
heading for their biggest weekly losses in percentage terms in
more than two years amid fears of escalating trade war as China
ramped up tariffs on U.S. goods.
Brent futures dived nearly 8% to $64.59 a barrel by
10:39 a.m. ET (14:39 GMT) while U.S. West Texas Intermediate
crude futures lost almost 9% to $61.04.
The refining sector is already over-supplied and so its
margin recovery is heavily dependent upon the trajectory for
demand growth, Gelder said.
Global gasoline demand is expected to peak this year at
around 28 million barrels per day amid surging electric vehicle
adoption and improving vehicle efficiency, particularly in
China, the world's largest oil importer, according to S&P Global
Commodity Insights. Diesel demand is likely already declining
after reaching 29 million barrels per day last year.
"We are now expecting much lower demand growth in 2025 and
in 2026, so not only do the tariffs stall the recovery in
refining margins we previously forecast in 2026, but they also
drive refining margins lower, perhaps back to 2021 levels,"
Gelder said.
Shares of Marathon Petroleum ( MPC ), which is the top U.S. refiner
by volume, were down around 8% at $118.33, the lowest since July
2023, on Friday morning.
Valero Energy ( VLO ), which is the second-largest U.S. refiner by
capacity, fell around 9% to $104.32, the lowest since May 2023.
Phillips 66's shares slid around 9% to $97.49, the lowest
since July 2023.
Meanwhile, the energy index sank around 6% on
Friday.
The new tariffs are fueling a trade war that will weigh on
the global economy and the consumption of refined products
including diesel and gasoline, analysts said.
"While crude oil and refined products have been range-bound
for most of the year battling the constant tariffs and sanctions
hot air, this implementation of sweeping tariffs has forced the
market to re-examine demand," energy analysts at Rabo Bank said
in a note.