SHANGHAI, March 26 (Reuters) - Wall Street firm Morgan
Stanley ( MS ) raised on Wednesday its index targets for Chinese
shares for the second time this year, citing improved earnings
growth forecasts and a more optimistic outlook for the economy
and currency.
The bank upgraded its year-end index targets for Hong Kong's
benchmark Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises
index, MSCI China index, and China's
blue-chip CSI300 index to 25,800, 9,500, 83, and 4,220
points, respectively.
"The new and higher index price targets are driven by both
moderate increases in earnings growth forecasts and higher
valuation targets," the U.S. bank said in a note.
It also cited "improved macro and FX outlook forecasts".
Morgan Stanley ( MS ) noted that earnings results for the fourth
quarter of last year from companies tracked by the MSCI China
index "are showing a solid 8% net beat", both in terms of the
number of companies and weighted earnings - marking the first
time in 3-1/2 years.
Chinese stocks have gained momentum this year, with the MSCI
China Index rising about 16% so far, outperforming global peers.
This rise is fuelled by investor optimism surrounding progress
in generative AI and Beijing's stimulus measures aimed at
boosting consumption and supporting the broader economy.
Developments in trade relations between the United States
and China have been a key focus for investors. The White House
said last week that U.S. President Donald Trump still intends to
impose new reciprocal tariffs on several U.S. trading partners,
starting April 2.
Morgan Stanley ( MS ) also raised its forecast for China's economic
growth in 2025 to 4.5%, up from the previous estimate of 4%. The
brokerage revised its yuan predictions to 7.35 per dollar by
mid-2025 and 7.50 by the end of this year, compared with its
prior forecast of 7.50 and 7.60, respectively.
"We have always made the point that currency strength serves
as an important factor for Chinese equities, especially for the
offshore market.
"This is because foreign investors' funding costs are
usually in U.S. dollar terms, which means a relatively stronger
or less weak currency should be a positive catalyst from an
asset allocation perspective."
Goldman Sachs ( GS ) shared a similar outlook, expecting
"more fundamental upside for China stocks."
"However, we expect the bull market to slow and
profit-taking pressures to build as the U.S.-China policy and
geopolitical calendar turns active once again in the coming
weeks," GS said in a note on Wednesday.