Indian shares have seen a pre-election rally since the beginning of the year on hopes that the current government will come back in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and CLSA believes that more market upside is likely if the final election result is in line with opinion polls.
NSE
Election 2019 started on April 11, 2019, with 91 out of 543 constituencies going to the polls in the first phase.
Keeping the political scenario in mind, the brokerage's top picks are ICICI Bank, Axis Bank, IndusInd Bank, HDFC, Godrej Properties, Ramco, ITC, Reliance Industries, ONGC, and NTPC.
Thus far in the calendar year 2019 (CY19), the BSE Sensex and the Nifty50 have rallied over 8 percent each, with a bulk of the gains coming in March led by foreign institutional investors inflows. The Sensex has gained around 7 percent in March on the back of a strong rally in banking and realty stocks.
According to the brokerage, markets have already factored in the BJP-win partially, as reflected in improved foreign and domestic flows. Broader economic growth and corporate earnings outlook would not change much with the election outcome and hence any potential large market correction due to political reasons would be a buying opportunity, it added.
"While different political parties have a broad-level policy consensus, manifesto analysis shows that Congress’ poll promises might intensify fiscal pressures and raise inflationary expectations. Housing should be a common policy beneficiary," the brokerage said.
In the past five years, IndusInd Bank has gained 268 percent followed by RIL up 187 percent, Axis Bank rising 169 percent and HDFC adding 132 percent. Among the brokerages' top picks, ONGC was the only stock that has delivered negative returns in the last 5 years.