(Updates with CPI)
July 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve held its
benchmark overnight interest rate steady in the 5.25%-5.50%
range at the conclusion of its June 11-12 policy meeting.
U.S. central bank officials remain uncertain about the
timing of a first rate cut and say they want to see more data
confirming that inflation will fall, even if slowly.
Among the key statistics they are watching:
INFLATION (CPI released July 11; next release PCE July 26):
Consumer prices fell in June by 0.1%, with drops in both
volatile energy items and core consumer goods like vehicles, and
weakness in housing costs that Fed officials have long been
waiting to see. The 0.2% rise in shelter prices was the slowest
since August of 2021, just as home prices and rents were
beginning a pandemic-era rise.
The data pushed the annual rise in consumer prices down
to 3% from 3.3% the month before, with the more volatile core
index, excluding food and energy, falling to 3.3% from 3.4%.
Actual declines in the inflation index are not common,
and the outcome - the weakest CPI print since May of 2020 -
could build the case for the Federal Reserve to cut rates.
Traders boosted bets on a September rate reduction to more than
80%.
The separate personal consumption expenditures price index,
used by the Fed to set its 2% inflation target, has also been
easing. It fell in May to a 2.6% annual rate, from 2.7% in the
prior month.
Core PCE prices, stripped of volatile food and energy costs,
dropped to 2.6% in May from 2.8% in April.
On a month-to-month basis, the PCE index was flat, and
officials have begun to pay closer attention to signs of
weakening demand in the economy as a precursor to a slowed pace
of price increases.
EMPLOYMENT (Released July 5; next release August 2):
U.S. firms added a greater-than-expected 206,000 jobs in
June, but revisions to the prior two months knocked 111,000
positions from the previously estimated number of payroll jobs.
That pushed the three-month average total payroll growth down to
177,000, below the level typical before the pandemic and a
development likely to be taken by the Federal Reserve as further
evidence the job market is slowing.
The unemployment rate rose slightly to 4.1%, the highest
since Nov. 2021.
Fed officials have become more comfortable with the idea
that continued job growth could still allow inflation to fall,
especially if the supply of labor keeps growing and wage growth
eases - as it did in June.
The number of people in a job or looking for work grew, and
fewer people dropped out of the labor force - both healthy signs
that nevertheless pushed up the unemployment rate. Average
hourly wages meanwhile rose 3.9% compared to a year ago, versus
a 4.1% annual increase in May. The Fed generally considers wage
growth in the range of 3.0%-3.5% as consistent with its 2%
inflation target.
JOB OPENINGS (Released July 2; next release July 30):
In a sign of the job market's continued strength, the level
of job openings rose slightly in May, while the number of open
jobs available for each unemployed person remained around 1.22,
near where it was in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has kept a close eye on the U.S.
Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
(JOLTS) for information on the imbalance between labor supply
and demand, and the pandemic-era jump to more than 2 to 1 in the
number of open jobs for each available worker was emblematic of
the time.
Things have cooled substantially. Other aspects of the
survey, like the quits rate - unchanged at 2.2 since November -
have edged back to pre-pandemic levels in what Fed officials
view as an emerging balance between the supply and demand for
workers.