(Updates at 1145 GMT)
By Alun John
LONDON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields rose on
Tuesday, with all eyes on the U.S. election which could drive
significant volatility across global bond markets, as well as
other asset classes.
Germany's 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, rose 4 basis points to 2.43%, closing in on
last week's three-month high of 2.447%.
The German 2-year yield rose 2 bps to 2.31%.
Euro zone bond markets will close well before voting
concludes in Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, but there are
potentially sharp swings to come when trading begins on
Wednesday.
The MOVE index which tracks expected volatility in
U.S. Treasuries is at its highest in a year, a sign, say
analysts at ING, that "we can expect a lot more rates volatility
once the election outcome becomes clear".
Euro zone bonds have reacted to moves in the U.S. Treasury
market in recent months so will also be affected.
Opinion polls show the election race as virtually even and
the winner may not be known for days, though Republican
candidate former President Donald Trump has already signalled
that he will attempt to fight any defeat, as he did in 2020.
The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was little changed
at 4.31%.
Market consensus ahead of the election is that a Trump
victory will lead to higher Treasury yields due to his policies
pushing inflation and growth higher likely causing a slower pace
of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.
The picture in Europe is more complicated however.
On the one hand, euro zone bonds have moved broadly in line
with their U.S. equivalents this year, but, on the other, if
Trump were to impose the heavy tariffs he has threatened on
Europe, it could hurt economic growth and push the European
Central Bank to accelerate rate cuts, sending yields lower.
"For euro rates, we could see a broader risk-off move
dominating in the case of a Trump win, with flows towards
(German) Bunds and longer-duration bonds as a result," said the
ING analysts.
Politics in Germany, where the ruling three way coalition
faces a make-or-break week, is also complicating the picture for
markets, as is a rise in oil prices with Brent at a 10-day high
back above $75 a barrel.
Italy's 10-year bond yield, seen as the
benchmark for the European periphery, was 5 basis points higher
at 3.71%, leaving the gap between Italian and German 10-year
yields at 127 bps.