Sept 13 (Reuters) - Euro zone government bond yields
fell on Friday, mirroring a decline in U.S. Treasury yields
after media reports fuelled speculation about a big interest
rate cut by the Federal Reserve next week.
The Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times reported it
might be a close call next Wednesday on whether the U.S. central
bank cuts by a large 50 basis points (bps) or 25 bps, surprising
markets that hitherto have seen a quarter-point move as more
likely.
The rate-sensitive U.S. 2-year Treasury yield
slipped 6.8 bps to 3.58% on Friday, as traders bought bonds in
anticipation of an aggressive cut by the Fed. Bond prices move
inversely to yields.
"A WSJ article seemed to open the door again for 50 bps,
making 25 bps not quite a done deal yet," Citi strategist Dirk
Willer said. "Perhaps a 50bp cut is still on the table because
when comparing the economic data relative to past easing cycles,
we are already in a weaker spot."
Citi strategists however expect the U.S. central bank to cut
rates by 25 bps next week, and sees cuts of 50 bps each in
November and December.
Traders are pricing in a 43% chance of a large 50 bps cut by
the Fed next week, as per CMEGroup's Fedwatch tool, up from 28%
a day ago.
A slew of central banks including the Fed, the Bank of Japan and
the Bank of England are set to announce rate decisions next
week, renewing the broad picture of global monetary policy.
The European Central Bank cut rates as expected on Thursday and
tweaked its economic forecasts, but gave little away in terms of
the time or size of subsequent moves. Another cut by December
fully priced into markets but the chance of an interim move in
October is seen only at 30%.
The German 10-year bond yield, the benchmark for
the euro zone bloc, slipped 1.9 bps to 2.14% and looked on track
to end the week slightly lower.
The two-year bond yield, which is more sensitive
to ECB rate expectations, fell 4 bps to 2.19%.
"We see scope for a further correction in Bunds in the
coming weeks if data support a scenario of gradual ECB easing,"
Unicredit analysts noted.
Ratings agencies Moody's and S&P Global are expected to
review their sovereign credit rating for Spain later on Friday.
The spread between German and Spanish bond yields
widened marginally to 80.3 bps from 77.8 bps in
the prior session.
Italy's 10-year yield fell 2.6 bps to 3.53%,
and the gap between Italian and German bond yields
stood at 138 bps, mostly unchanged on the day.