Pound Sterling is forecast to decline back to the lower end of the now well-entrenched 2014 range against the South African Rand.

Trade started at 12.13 USD-ZAR on the final session of March and John Cairns at RMB in Johannesburg says immediate resistance at 12.16 is likely to give way to further upside gains quickly enough.

“Moves, nevertheless, remain constrained and it looks as if the market will edge, rather than run, higher. EUR/ZAR looks likely to be more stable — it has jumped up to the 13.15 level but shows no signs of pushing through the key band of resistance that extends from here to 13.23,” says Cairns.

RMB are confident that USD/ZAR will finish a month above 12.00 for the first time ever and that it will finish higher for a record 12th consecutive quarter.

“Amazing trends indeed, but remember that USD/ZAR gives a false impression of the rand’s actual performance as upside in the last three quarters reflects dollar gains rather than rand losses. In fact, the market is about to end the third consecutive quarter where EUR/ZAR has fallen quite sharply. Overall, on a trade weighted basis, the rand has been flat over the past year,” notes Cairns.

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