financetom
Pound-Dollar
financetom
/
Forex
/
Pound-Dollar
/
Pound-Dollar Rate Drops by More than Half a Percent
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Pound-Dollar Rate Drops by More than Half a Percent
Mar 22, 2024 2:18 AM

Image © Adobe Images

GBP/USD spot at publication: 1.3589Bank transfer rates (indicative guide): 1.3213-1.3300Specialist transfer provider rates (indicative): 1.3447-1.3494Find out about securing specialist rates, hereA strong move higher by the U.S. Dollar has pushed the Pound, Euro and other major currencies lower ahead of the weekend.

The move higher in the U.S. Dollar is consistent with a move lower in global stock markets, confirming the U.S. currency's tendency to perform well when investors sell stocks.

The Pound-to-Dollar exchange rate has fallen 0.75% to quote at 1.3585 at the time of writing, the Euro-to-Dollar exchange rate has fallen 0.56% to quote at 1.2083.

Analysts we follow say the recovery in the U.S. Dollar is a rebound following the steady decline in the currency seen over many weeks, therefore it is not necessarily a more meaningful turn in the tide.

"We expect the dollar bear trend to take a breather in a week packed with risk events," says Francesco Pesole, FX Strategist at ING.

Derek Halpenny, Head of Research at MUFG says the Dollar's rebound can go further.

"After the sell-off of the US dollar into the end of 2020, the dollar is now retracing that weakness and history suggests a strong seasonal pattern that points to the potential for further near-term strength," says the analyst.

{wbamp-hide start}

Smaller banner

GBP/USD Forecasts Q2 2023

Period: Q2 2023 Onwards
Details: Consensus institutional forecast targets + max & min targets.
Contributors: Citi, Barclays, Morgan Stanley & more
Provider: Global Reach
Type: Free Download

Please Access Here
{wbamp-hide end}{wbamp-show start}{wbamp-show end}Manuel Oliveri, FX Strategist at Crédit Agricole says, "we now believe that a less bearish stance on the USD is warranted in the near term, to the extent that a more aggressive fiscal stimulus gives the near- term US economic outlook a more meaningful boost and propels higher both US stocks and UST yields."

The Dollar has risen ahead of the weekend amidst a turn lower in markets, with some commentators this is a 'sell the fact' reaction to the announcement on Thursday by incoming U.S. President Joe Biden of a near-$2TRN support package.

Expectations of the announcement saw markets rally on Thursday, and the decline seen on Friday following the actual announcement is heavily suggestive of markets booking a profit on the announcement.

"It looks like the announcement of Biden’s stimulus plan and the arrival of earnings season was the cue for investors to begin cutting back on equity allocations, and after such a strong run higher since late October no one can really blame them," says Chris Beauchamp, Chief Market Analyst at IG.

But, there is more than just a 'risk-on/risk-off' driver of the Dollar of play, coming in the form of the U.S. bond market.

The Dollar had already benefited this week following a rise in the yield paid by U.S. bonds; the Dollar does tend to react to two-year bond yields in particular.

A theme capturing the attention of market participants of late has been the potential for a more substantial rise in inflation in 2021 owing to expectations for an economic recovery from the covid-19 crisis. Inflation expectations have only risen even higher in the wake of Biden's proposal to give an additional $2000 to every American.

Higher inflation expectations tend to push up yields on bonds as investors require a greater return on their bond investments if they believe their investment will be eroded by rising prices.

Higher 2-year yields meanwhile pull the Dollar up, as shown in recent moves in the U.S. Dollar index:

Above: The rise in 2-year treasury bond yields in 2021 has corresponded with a rise in the USD.

"We are only into our second week of the year but we have already had a very meaningful move in UST bond yields. Up to the intra-day peak this week, the ytd move higher was 28bps. Yields have since dropped but we see this as certainly providing much more balanced flows to FX markets that has resulted in the US dollar correcting stronger," says Halpenny.

A number of foreign exchange analysts we follow say the Pound and Euro are likely to be passengers in the Dollar's journey near-term, meaning the above-mentioned themes are expected to remain the prime drivers of GBP/USD and GBP/EUR next week.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
The GBPUSD price resumes the decline - Forecast today - 24-10-2024
The GBPUSD price resumes the decline - Forecast today - 24-10-2024
Oct 27, 2024
The GBPUSD price provided clear negative trades yesterday to reach 1.2900$ barrier, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend, which targets 1.2866$ as a next station, noting that breaking this level will extend the bearish wave to reach 61.8% Fibonacci correction level around 1.2735$. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period, noting...
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Sterling hovers around $1.3 ahead of Bailey's remarks
Nov 3, 2024
Sterling climbed in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, while recovering from two-month lows against the US dollar, thus hovering around the psychological barrier of $1.3. Now traders await Bank of England Governor Andrew Baileys speech later today, which could provide clues on the future of UK interest rate cuts this year. The Price The GBP/USD...
The GBPUSD price attempts to recover - Forecast today - 25-10-2024
The GBPUSD price attempts to recover - Forecast today - 25-10-2024
Oct 27, 2024
The GBPUSD price fluctuates around 1.2975$ level after the rise that it witnessed in the previous sessions, waiting to rebound bearishly to resume the correctional bearish trend, supported by the negative pressure formed by the EMA50, reminding you that the next target is located at 1.2866$. Holding below 1.3000$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching...
Sterling recovers after UK labor data
Sterling recovers after UK labor data
Oct 26, 2024
Odds of BOE rate cut in September recede Markets await UK growth data Sterling rose in European trade on Tuesday against a basket of major rivals, holding its ground above three-week lows against the US dollar following important UK labor data. The data confirms the resilience of the UK economy, and bolsters expectations the Bank of England will maintain interest...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved